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Visa (V): Can the 2026 Bullish Trend Overcome Recent Price Lag?

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Market analysts expected Visa (V) to post strong results in early 2026. They pointed to rapid AI adoption and rising global travel. Visa planned to report earnings on January 29, 2026. Estimates projected an EPS near $3.14, showing a clear double‑digit gain from last year. Visa also used its value‑added services and new flow initiatives to expand revenue beyond consumer spending. As a result, major institutions kept a Strong Buy rating. They expected Visa to benefit from the modernization of B2B payments.

From a strategic view, investors needed to watch Visa’s response to new regulations and real‑time payment networks. Inflation stayed persistent, yet Visa gained from its inflation‑linked revenue model and strong margins. The company also invested heavily in agentic commerce and tokenization security. These moves widened its edge over fintech competitors. In addition, steady buybacks and a revenue target of $10.72 billion strengthened its long‑term outlook. With high operational efficiency, Visa offered a defensive but growth‑focused option for portfolios in early 2026.

Elliott Wave Outlook: VISA (V) Weekly Chart August 2025

Elliott Wave Outlook: VISA (V) Weekly Chart August 2025

Using Visa’s weekly chart, we explained that the Blue Boxes acted as reaction zones. From August onward, we expected price to respect those areas. After the stock pushed higher from the blue box, we saw the bullish count as the strongest path. We expected that view to hold while price stayed above $328.70. With that support intact, we looked for a rally toward $386.57–$404.48. In that zone, wave ((5)) of III should have ended and triggered wave IV lower. That pullback likely aimed toward $328.70 before wave V pushed higher. However, a break below $328.70 would have changed the outlook. That move would have signaled a wave III top and an active wave IV decline. In that case, we expected a drop toward $298.75 before wave V advanced.

Elliott Wave Outlook: VISA (V) Weekly Chart January 2026

Elliott Wave Outlook: VISA (V) Weekly Chart January 2026

In this new update, we can see that the market broke below $328.70 in November, suggesting that we are already in wave IV. For that reason, we labeled the structure as a double correction. Wave ((W)) marks the November low, wave ((X)) marks the January 2026 high, and now we are looking for three more waves lower to complete the pattern before the bullish trend resumes.

We expect the next bounce to be corrective, allowing one more leg down into the blue box at 300.78–265.09. To validate this idea, the market must break the November low. That break would give us a great opportunity to buy Visa (V) again. (If you want to learn more about Elliott Wave Principle, please follow these links: and .) 

 

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Gold, Silver, and the S&P 500: Navigating the New Correlation

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For decades, investors viewed Gold and Silver as the ultimate insurance policy. Traditionally, precious metals and equities moved in opposite directions, providing a natural hedge for portfolios. However, the market dynamics of 2024 and 2025 completely rewrote the rulebook. As we navigate the first quarter of 2026, understanding this new “direct correlation” is vital for protecting your wealth.

The Foundation: Why Metals Traditionally Oppose Stocks

Historically, Gold (1$XAU$) and the S&P 500 (2$SPX$) maintained a strong inverse correlation.3 When the stock market thrived, gold prices usually stalled or fell. This “tug-of-war” occurred for three main reasons:

  • Risk Sentiment: Investors aggressively pursue growth (stocks) during “risk-on” periods and flee to gold (safety) during “risk-off” cycles.

  • Opportunity Cost: Because gold pays no dividends, high stock returns make holding the metal “costly” in terms of missed gains.

  • Monetary Stability: Gold acts as a hedge against a weak dollar. Consequently, a currency crisis typically hurts stocks while simultaneously boosting gold.

The Great Breakdown of Gold in 2024 and 2025

The investment playbook broke recently. This was not a sudden shift, but rather an acceleration that consolidated a new, aggressive trend:

  • The 2024 Anomaly: For the first time in the modern era, Gold and the S&P 500 both gained over 25% in the same year. In August 2024, their correlation hit a record 0.91, as they moved in almost total synchrony.

  • The 2025 Consolidation: Last year, the market witnessed simultaneous all-time highs. Stocks rose on the AI boom, while Gold climbed due to mounting fears regarding the massive US fiscal deficit.

GOLD vs SPXWhy Did This Happen?

In a startling turn for early 2026, the traditional rulebook has been discarded. We are currently seeing a positive correlation, where both Gold and the S&P 500 reach all-time highs simultaneously (with gold hovering around $4,500 – $5,000 per ounce). This breakdown is driven by three modern forces:

  1. Global Debt & Dollar Debasement: National debt has reached levels that trigger fears of permanent inflation. As a result, institutions buy the S&P 500 for earnings growth and Gold to protect against a devaluing currency. They no longer choose one or the other; they buy both.

  2. Central Bank Dominance: Central banks worldwide are diversifying their reserves away from Treasuries at a record pace. This “non-cyclical” buying pressure keeps gold prices high, regardless of how well Wall Street performs.

  3. Interest Rate Expectations: Anticipation of Fed rate cuts in Q1 2026 has reduced real yields. This makes stocks more valuable (cheaper debt) and gold more attractive (lower opportunity cost) at the same time.

Q1 2026 Outlook: What Should We Expect?

As we advance through the first quarter of 2026, the market sits at a critical junction. The primary question is: will this direct correlation persist, or will we return to the old dynamics?

The Case for Continued Direct Movement

Analysts expect this direct correlation to hold through most of Q1. Specifically, as long as the AI-driven earnings boom continues and central banks keep accumulating gold, both assets will benefit from the massive global liquidity in the system.

The Return to Decoupling

Conversely, we will likely see a “Grand Decoupling” toward the end of the year. Historically, periods where “everything rallies” mark the final stage of a market cycle. If a sudden economic shock occurs, investors will liquidate winning stock positions to cover losses, while Gold will separate to become the only remaining safety net.

Strategic Summary for Investors

The current movement “in unison” is an anomaly fueled by debt and liquidity. While it is profitable now, astute investors must prepare for an eventual return to the mean. Once the market realizes that corporate growth cannot outrun structural currency debasement forever, the traditional inverse correlation will reclaim its throne.

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SPX Pullback Completed, Ready for the Next Leg Higher?

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SPX completes wave ((ii)) correction at Fibonacci support and begins the next bullish sequence

S&P 500 Index ticker symbol: SPX has completed its corrective pullback and is now turning higher. The broader bullish structure remains intact. Price respected key support and confirmed the correction as complete. After finishing wave ((i)) at the last high, SPX moved lower in wave ((ii)). This decline unfolded as a clear A-B-C correction. Wave (a) initiated the pullback, followed by Wave (b) which created a temporary bounce. Wave (c) then drove prices lower into the Fibonacci extension zone, ultimately ending near the 1.618 projection around 6693. This area also aligns with the blue box support on the chart.

Price stabilized near the lows and began to turn higher. This reaction signals that wave ((ii)) has already finished. From that low, SPX is now starting a new bullish sequence in black wave ((iii)). Within this, the first advance represents wave (i) followed by a shallow pullback as wave (ii). As long as price stays above the 6519.34 invalidation level, the index should continue higher in wave (iii) targeting 100%-161.8% fib. extension area of wave (i) which would be a price range of 6854-6914. At this stage, we do not recommend selling. The risk-to-reward favors the upside. Any dips are expected to remain corrective and find support.

Overall, the Elliott Wave structure supports further upside. SPX appears ready to resume its broader bullish trend.

SPX Pullback Completed, Ready for the Next Leg Higher?

Elliott Wave Video

S&P 500 (SPX) Elliott Wave: Buying the Dips in a Blue Box

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Hello fellow traders,

As our members know we have had many profitable trading setups recently.  In this technical article, we are going to present another Elliott Wave trading setup we got in S&P 500 Index . SPX completed this correction precisely at the Equal Legs zone, referred to as the Blue Box Area. In the following sections, we will delve into the specifics of the Elliott Wave pattern observed , discuss the trading setup and present targets.

SPX Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 11.18.2025

The current view suggests that SPX is forming a Double Three correction (WXY red) . The price action is reaching blue box at 6577.688-6395.668 where we are looking to re-enter as buyers. We recommend members to avoid selling SPX . As the main trend remains bullish, we anticipate at least a 3-wave bounce from this Blue Box area. Once the price touches the 50 fibs against the X red connector, we’ll make positions risk-free and set the stop loss at breakeven and book partial profits. On other hand, breaking below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at 6395.668 would invalidate the trade.

Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

Quick reminder on how to trade our charts :

Red bearish stamp+ blue box = Selling Setup
Green bullish stamp+ blue box = Buying Setup
Charts with Black stamps are not tradable. 🚫

SPX

SPX Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 11.27.2025

The index has found buyers in the anticipated Blue Box. SPX is now showing a solid bounce from this key Buying Zone. The current reaction has reached the 50% Fibonacci level relative to the X‑red connector. As a result, any long positions initiated from the Blue Box should now be considered risk-free. Our stop loss has been moved to breakeven, and we’ve already locked in partial profits.

We consider the correction completed at the 6523 low. As long as SPX remains above this level, the index has potential to target the 7013+ area next.

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Reminder for members: Our chat rooms in the membership area are available 24 hours a day, providing expert insights on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions about the market, Elliott Wave patterns, or technical analysis. We’re here to help.

SPX

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Visa (V) Surges +96% from 2022 Blue Box – Another Elliott Wave Success

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Visa (V) trades near its 52-week high of $375.51. Its market cap stands at $663.8 billion, reflecting strong investor confidence. With a P/E ratio of 33.63 and a modest 0.69% dividend yield, Visa remains a premium growth stock. The company’s global dominance and tech-driven strategy continue to attract long-term investors.

In Q3 2025, Visa posted $10.2 billion in revenue, up 14% year-over-year. EPS beat estimates at $2.98, marking four straight quarters of surprises. Analysts rate it a strong buy, with targets as high as $430. Visa’s investments in AI, cybersecurity, and blockchain reinforce its leadership. Despite regulatory risks, its forward P/E of 27.79 suggests room for upside.

Elliott Wave Outlook: VISA (V) Daily Chart December 2022

VISA (V) Daily Chart From December 2022

Back in October 2022, Visa (V) hit the blue box at $174.60, completing wave ((Y)) of II and setting the stage for a bullish reversal. At the time, we anticipated a leading diagonal to unfold as wave ((1)), and the market delivered exactly that ending the structure at $220.04 high. We were expecting a pullback in 3 swings at least to end wave ((2)) before resuming the rally. This structure confirmed our forecast and reinforced the reliability of the blue box strategy. You can check the old article here: VISA (V) Completed A Double Correction And Rally 

Elliott Wave Outlook: VISA (V) Weekly Chart August 2025

In this update, we use the weekly chart of Visa (V) to show that Blue Boxes are not just marketing, they’re high-frequency zones where the market often reacts, and we aim to participate in those reactions. We can see the stock continued building an impulse structure from the blue box area. While alternate counts exist, we believe this one has the highest probability. As long as price stays above $328.70, we expect the rally to continue toward $386.57–$404.48, where wave ((5)) of III should complete. In that zone, we anticipate a bearish reaction that signals the start of wave IV, which should drop to $328.70 before wave V resumes higher. However, if price breaks below $328.70 soon, wave III is likely complete, and wave IV is already in progress. In that case, wave IV should fall to $298.75 before the next bullish leg in wave V.

Transform Your Trading with Elliott Wave Forecast!

Ready to take control of your trading journey? At Elliott Wave Forecast, we provide the tools you need to stay ahead in the market:

✅ Blue Boxes: Stay ahead in the market with fresh 1-hour charts updated four times daily, daily 4-hour charts on 78 instruments, and precise Blue Box zones that highlight high-probability trade setups based on sequences and cycles.

✅ Live Sessions: Join our daily live discussions and stay on the right side of the market.

✅ Real-Time Guidance: Get your questions answered in our interactive chat room with expert moderators.

🔥 Special Offer: Start your journey with a 14-day trial for only $0.99. Gain access to exclusive forecasts and Blue Box trade setups. No risks, cancel anytime by reaching out to us at support@elliottwave-forecast.com.

💡 Don’t wait! Elevate your trading game now. Trial us at: 🌐

Elliott Wave Analysis: SPY Poised To Extend Higher In Bullish Sequence

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Elliott Wave sequence in SPY (S&P 500 ETF) suggest bullish sequence in progress started from 4.07.2025 low. It expects two or few more highs to extend the impulse sequence from April-2025, while dips remain above 6.23.2025 low. SPY ended the daily corrective pullback in 3 swings at 480 low on 4.07.2025 low from February-2025 peak. Above there, it favors upside in bullish impulse sequence as broke above February-2025 high. Currently, it favors wave 3 of (1) & expect one more push higher from 7.16.2025 low in to 630.31 – 651.1 area before correcting in wave 4. In 4-hour, it placed 1 at 596.05 high, 2 at 573.26 low as shallow connector & extend higher in 3. Within 3, it placed ((i)) at 606.40 high, ((ii)) at 591.89 low, ((iii)) at 627.97 high & ((iv)) at 618.05 low.

In 1-hour above ((ii)) low of 591.89 low, it ended (i) at 605.96 high, (ii) at 603.17 low, (iii) at 626.87 high as extended move, (iv) at 620 low & (v) as ((iii)) at 627.97 high. Wave ((iv)) ended in 3 swing pullback as shallow connector slightly below 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of ((iii)). Within ((iii)), it ended (a) at 619.8 low, (b) at 624.12 high & (c) at 618.05 low on 7.16.2025 low (this week). Above there, it favors rally in ((v)) of 3 targeting in to 630.31 – 651.1 area before correcting in 4. Within ((v)), it placed (i) at 624.73 high, (ii) at 623.08 low & favors upside in (iii) of ((v)). We like to buy the pullback in clear 3, 7 or 11 swings correction at extreme area in 4 and later in (2) pullback, once finished (1) in 5 swings.

SPY – 45-Minute Elliott Wave Technical Chart:

SPY Elliott Wave Technical Video: