semiconductors Archives - Elliott Wave Forecast

From Setup to Payoff: AMD ’s Explosive $100 Rally

October 18, 2025 By EWFLuis

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) drives substantial growth as it expands into artificial intelligence and data center markets. OpenAI and Oracle validate its roadmap, confirming plans to deploy tens of thousands of MI450 and MI350 accelerators. These chips deliver superior performance and cost efficiency for AI inference, positioning AMD as a strong alternative to NVIDIA. Consequently, analysts forecast AMD’s revenue could reach $46 billion by 2028, with AI-related sales contributing up to $20 billion annually by 2027.

Investor confidence rises sharply. Price targets climb to $300, while bullish scenarios suggest $400 if AMD continues gaining market share. Moreover, AMD reports a 32% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, fueled by EPYC server CPUs and Ryzen processors. As demand for AI infrastructure intensifies and hyperscalers scale up. AMD’s strategic investments and partnerships strengthen its position as a leading force in next-generation tech innovation.

Elliott Wave Outlook: AMD 30 Min Chart September 25th

On September 25th, AMD completed a double correction labeled as wave ((b)) at the 149.62 low. Immediately after, the market rallied and formed a leading diagonal structure, which marked the end of wave (i). Then, a pullback began. At that point, we identified a potential double correction (wxy) unfolding as wave (ii). Therefore, we applied Fibonacci to define the extreme zone, which ranged from 155.28 to 151.14. Based on this setup, we anticipated a bounce that would resume the bullish trend. As long as the market stayed above 149.62, our outlook remained valid.

Elliott Wave Outlook: AMD 30 Min Chart September 26th

The next day, the double correction unfolded and completed wave y of (ii) within the expected zone. Immediately afterward, the bullish move began. To confirm the continuation of the uptrend, the market needed to break above wave (i). Once that happened, the probability of holding the 149.64 pivot point increased significantly.

Therefore, we looked for the market to develop an impulsive structure that could generate profits for our setup. With momentum building and technical conditions aligning, we positioned ourselves to capitalize on the upward move. If you’re eager to dive deeper into Elliott Wave Theory and learn how its principles apply to market forecasting, you might find these resources helpful: and .

Elliott Wave Outlook: AMD 1 Hour Chart October 17th

This is the latest update on AMD. We can clearly see the small extreme zone where we entered our buy position. Shortly after, the market made a strong bullish move, prompting us to adjust the count to a significant impulsive wave. That impulse remains active and should continue driving the rally.

This setup highlights the difference between short-term trading and the behavior of day traders. After one month, AMD has climbed nearly $100, while a day trader likely exited around $160. Many chase quick riches and trade as if there’s no tomorrow—but that approach rarely works. What truly works is a solid setup, disciplined risk control, fractal awareness, and at least a one-month outlook. In the end, long-term investors win—especially when they choose companies with strong market positioning and long-term vision.

Transform Your Trading with Elliott Wave Forecast!

Ready to take control of your trading journey? At Elliott Wave Forecast, we provide the tools you need to stay ahead in the market:

✅ Blue Boxes: Stay ahead in the market with fresh 1-hour charts updated four times daily, daily 4-hour charts on 78 instruments, and precise Blue Box zones that highlight high-probability trade setups based on sequences and cycles.

✅ Live Sessions: Join our daily live discussions and stay on the right side of the market.

✅ Real-Time Guidance: Get your questions answered in our interactive chat room with expert moderators.

🔥 Special Offer: Start your journey with a 14-day trial for only $0.99. Gain access to exclusive forecasts and Blue Box trade setups. No risks, cancel anytime by reaching out to us at support@elliottwave-forecast.com.

💡 Don’t wait and get a DISCOUNT for any plan!

Click in the next link, go to Home Chat and ask for a flat discount code saying that you saw this in Luis’ Blog: 🌐

Extreme SMH Zone: Hold Tight or Take Profits?

September 27, 2025 By EWFLuis

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) trades within the forecasted extreme zone of 309.83 to 353.03, showing signs of technical overheating. Analysts expect an average 12-month price target of 343.93, with bullish projections reaching up to 451.50. Strong demand for semiconductors—driven by AI, electric vehicles, and cloud infrastructure—continues to push momentum. All major moving averages, from the 10-day to the 200-day, point to a “Buy” signal. At the same time, indicators like RSI and STOCH suggest overbought conditions. Traders should watch for signs of consolidation or a pullback before the next leg higher.

From October 2025 into early 2026, SMH’s direction depends on interest rate trends, chip supply dynamics, and earnings from top holdings such as NVIDIA, TSMC, and Broadcom. The ETF holds a “Moderate Buy” rating, backed by 22 buy recommendations and 4 holds. While long-term growth in semiconductors looks solid, short-term risks may surface from global tensions or cyclical shifts. New investors might wait for clearer support levels or a dip before entering. Those already in the trade could protect gains by trimming positions or setting stop-loss levels as SMH moves through this high-risk zone.

Elliott Wave Outlook: SMH Daily Chart May 13th

SMH recently completed a complex double correction (w, x, y), confirming the shift from a failed zigzag (a, b, c) to a deeper structural reset. The breach of wave ((A)) by wave ((C)) and the August 2024 low signaled this transition early, with wave w ending at 200.49, wave x peaking at 269.66 through two diagonal formations, and wave y bottoming at 170.11—right within the Fibonacci extension zone of 186.80 to 167.22. From that low, SMH began a clear impulsive move upward, reinforcing the bullish outlook. As the structure unfolded, corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings were expected to support the trend. Therefore, buying the dips was the preferred strategy while momentum was holden.

We analyzed to focus on the 309.83 to 353.03 zone as a likely target for wave (V) to complete. This range marks a critical threshold where bullish exhaustion could trigger a broader market correction. With the impulse in motion and technical patterns aligning, traders should stay alert for signs of topping behavior once SMH approaches this zone. The setup favors continued upside in the near term, but disciplined risk management will be key as the ETF enters historically reactive levels.

Elliott Wave Outlook: SMH Daily Chart September 27th

SMH continues to push through a strong impulsive structure. All signs suggest wave V is already in motion. The weekly chart hints at wave III still unfolding, but we are going to assume a conservative mood for now. The structure from the 170.11 low remains solid. Bullish momentum dominates unless proven otherwise. We expect wave ((3)) to peak by late September. A swift correction in wave ((4)) may follow through October. If the pattern holds, November and December could bring a final rally. A broader reset may begin in early 2026.

SMH now trades inside the critical 309.83–353.03 zone. This area often signals exhaustion and potential reversal. Traders must stay alert and act with precision. The wave V structure looks clean and actionable. The strategy remains simple: buy dips after corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings. Momentum still favors the bulls, but risk increases inside this zone. A sharp correction could unfold at any moment. Watch for signs of topping or failed breakouts. Discipline and tactical awareness are essential. Ride the impulse while it lasts but stay ready to pivot.

Transform Your Trading with Elliott Wave Forecast!

Ready to take control of your trading journey? At Elliott Wave Forecast, we provide the tools you need to stay ahead in the market:

✅ Live Sessions: Join our daily live discussions and stay on the right side of the market.

✅ Real-Time Guidance: Get your questions answered in our interactive chat room with expert moderators.

💡 Don’t wait and get a DISCOUNT for any plan!

Click in the next link, go to Home Chat and ask for a flat discount code saying that you saw this in Luis’ Blog: 🌐

SMH Finds Support After Double Correction, Wave (V) in Motion

May 13, 2025 By EWFLuis

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) gives investors access to 25 major U.S.-listed semiconductor companies. The fund includes NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, QUALCOMM, ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Micron Technology, and AMD.

Analysts view SMH as a strong investment in a sector driving advancements in AI, cloud computing, and high-performance computing. While volatile, experts emphasize long-term growth, supported by rising demand for AI, 5G, and autonomous vehicles. Despite market fluctuations, SMH often outperforms when investor sentiment improves.

Investors closely monitor global supply chains, trade policies, and new chip innovations, which could shape future growth. With these factors influencing the market, SMH remains an attractive option for exposure to the semiconductor industry.

Last SMH Daily Chart January 16th

Earlier this year, on January 16, 2025, we analyzed the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and observed its sideways movement between $230 and $260 in the daily timeframe. As expected, the market rallied from $222.20, but momentum failed to break previous highs or reach the $269.50 level. Consequently, we adjusted our chart and identified Wave I as a leading diagonal that ended at $262.26. Since October 2024, the price traded within a Wave II correction, which we classified as a running flat correction.

At that time, we believed Wave III had already started, with Wave ((1)) of III topping at $257.20 before entering a Wave ((2)) pullback. As long as price action held above $240.62, we expected a bullish move targeting a break above $283.07.

However, while we favored the running flat correction scenario for Wave II, we acknowledged the possibility of an expanded flat correction. If the market had fallen below $240.62, SMH would have likely extended its decline toward the $235.29 – $228.61 range before completing Wave II and resuming its upward trend. (If you want to learn more about flat corrections, please follow these links: and .)

SMH Daily Chart May 13th

In our latest update, we observed that the zigzag correction (a, b, c) failed, leading to a double correction (w, x, y). This aligns with the fundamental concept that corrections move in 3, 7, or 11 swings, forming a simple correction, a double correction, or a triple correction. As analysts, we must assess which of these three scenarios is most likely to occur.

When wave (C) of ((W)) broke below wave (A), it served as an early signal that a double correction might unfold. This was later confirmed when the August 2024 low was breached. From the wave (III) high, the first leg of the double correction formed as a zigzag, ending wave w at 200.49. Following that, another zigzag pattern developed, featuring two diagonals’ structures one leading and one ending which marked the completion of wave x at 269.66. Finally, the double correction in wave y wrapped up at 170.11, completing wave (IV) within the Fibonacci extension zone of 186.80 – 167.22 (100% – 123%).

Current Outlook & Strategy

At present, it is clear that SMH is developing an impulse from the 170.11 low. The primary expectation is for the upward movement to persist, supported by corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings. Given this setup, the best strategy is to buy the dips, as the bullish trend remains intact.

Looking ahead, we are targeting the 309.83 – 353.03 zone as a potential area for wave (V) to complete. Once SMH reaches this range, a more significant correction in the market could follow.

Be good and Trade Smart!

Transform Your Trading with Elliott Wave Forecast!

Ready to take control of your trading journey? At Elliott Wave Forecast, we provide the tools you need to stay ahead in the market:

✅ Hourly Updates: Fresh 1-hour charts updated 4 times a day and 4-hour charts updated daily for 78 instruments.

✅ Blue Boxes: High-frequency trading zones, calculated using sequences, cycles, and extensions. These areas pinpoint ideal setups for smarter trades.

✅ Live Sessions: Join our daily live discussions and stay on the right side of the market.

✅ Real-Time Guidance: Get your questions answered in our interactive chat room with expert moderators.

🔥 Exclusive Offer: Start your journey with a 14-day trial for only $9.99. Gain access to exclusive forecasts and Blue Box trade setups. No risks, cancel anytime by reaching out to us at support@elliottwave-forecast.com.

💡 Don’t wait! Elevate your trading game now. Trial us at: 🌐

Can Micron (MU) Overcome the Market Hurdles for a Strong Rally?

March 15, 2025 By EWFLuis

The performance of Micron Technology Inc. (MU) stock has been a constant topic of interest in financial markets. Despite strong projections and a track record of innovation in the semiconductor industry, the ability of its stock to sustain a significant rally could be challenged by economic and sector-specific factors. In this article, we will explore the challenges and opportunities Micron faces on its path to sustainable recovery, as well as the potential impact of these dynamics on investors.

MU Weekly Chart October 2024

In the last weekly chart of October 2024, MU made a bearish impulse ending at $84.12 low, and we labeled this as wave ((A)) of II. Then, we were anticipating a corrective wave ((B)). Wave (A) ended at $106.75 high, and we identified the correction wave (B) as completed at $98.94 low. We stated that wave (C) had already started a new rally, and we expected it to reach the $130.03–$149.15 area to culminate wave ((B)) and turn lower into ((C)). This idea was valid as long as the market remained below $157.57 or above $48.43. If the market would break above wave I high, then wave II would have already ended.

MU Weekly Chart March 2025

MU shows potential to recover its stock price as technological advancements and a memory market rebound drive growth later in 2025. However, demand fluctuations, global economic pressures, or unexpected market shifts create uncertainty around this recovery. The outlook highlights growth opportunities, but investors must monitor market volatility, which could undermine the rally’s sustainability.

The price broke below wave ((A)) low, which suggests wave ((B)) may be completed instead of wave (A). However, the ranging movement more likely indicates wave ((B)) is forming an expanding flat correction. We labeled wave (B) at the 83.54 low, and wave (C) is now progressing as an impulse or an ending diagonal structure. The chart illustrates an upward impulse, targeting the 113.95–132.90 area for wave (C) and ((B)). Afterward, the market will likely react lower to continue wave ((C)) of II. While wave II may already be finished, we are conservatively labeling this rally as part of an expanding flat correction. If MU breaks above wave I high, it confirms wave II is complete. Conversely, if the market breaks below wave (B), wave ((B)) is complete, and wave ((C)) begins moving downward.

Elliott Wave Forecast

www.elliottwave-forecast.com updates one-hour charts 4 times a day and 4-hour charts once a day for all our 78 instruments. We do a daily live session where we guide our clients on the right side of the market. In addition, we have a chat room where our moderators will help you with any questions you have about what is happening in the market. Trial Us!

14 days trial cost $9.99 only. Cancel anytime at support@elliottwave-forecast.com

Micron Technology Inc (MU) Ended the Cycle from December 2022 Low

October 17, 2024 By EWFLuis

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) designs, develops, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Compute and Networking Business Unit, Mobile Business Unit, Embedded Business Unit, and Storage Business Unit. Micron Technology, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.

MU Weekly Chart March 2023

As we see in the chart above, we ended an impulse as wave I at $96.96 high. Then, the market did an expanded flat correction (3-3-5) causing the price to drop to $48.43. We labelled this low as wave II. From here, we expected to continue the rally as long as the price stays above wave II. (If you want to learn more about flat corrections, please follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory).

MU Weekly Chart July 2024

In July, we adjusted the labels by calling (I) and (II) where waves I and II were on the chart a year ago. As you could see, MU hit the bottom and started a new bullish cycle breaking above $150.00. This generated a return of more than 200% of the capital. We called a wave III of (III) at $157.54 high and wave IV ended at $127.27 low. We expected to trade higher in wave V of (III) to reach the ideal zone of $164.83 – $176.47 where we should see a market reaction.

MU Weekly Chart October 2024

This is the latest update of Micron. Wave IV failed to withstand the market onslaught and broke below $127.27. This ended the cycle that started in December 2022 and we adjusted the movement as wave I of (III) ended at $157.57 high. MU did a bearish impulse ending at $84.12 low and we called it wave ((A)) of II. Currently, it is trading in the corrective wave ((B)). Wave (A) ended at $106.75 high. The correction ended wave (B) at $98.94 low. Now wave (C) has already started a new rally and we expect to reach the $130.03 – $149.15 area to culminate wave ((B)) and turn lower in ((C)). The idea is valid as long as the market stays below $157.57 or above $48.43. If the market breaks above wave I, then wave II is most likely over.

Elliott Wave Forecast

www.elliottwave-forecast.com updates one-hour charts 4 times a day and 4-hour charts once a day for all our 78 instruments. We do a daily live session where we guide our clients on the right side of the market. In addition, we have a 24 hours chat room where we will help you with any questions about the market.

14 Days Trial costs $9.99 only. Cancel anytime at support@elliottwave-forecast.com

SOXX Near To Complete A Market Cycle From December 2018

December 5, 2021 By EWFLuis

SOXX is semiconductor ETF to provide concentrated exposure to the 30 largest US-listed semiconductor companies. This includes (i) manufacturers of materials with semiconductors that are used in electronic applications or in LED and OLED technology and (ii) providers of services or equipment associated with semiconductors.

SOXX Daily Chart

The market cycle began on December 2018 when SOXX found support at $144.79. The ETF got a bullish momentum and it is building an impulse that could end at any moment. The wave ((1)) of the impulse ended at $269.36. The pullback made a zig-zag correction completing at $167.79 as wave 2. Wave ((3)) started a powerful rally reaching $443.97 in less than a year. Wave ((4)) correction drop to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from wave ((2)) at $386.02, doing an irregular flat structure. From May 2021, we are developing wave ((5)) to complete the whole cycle from 2018 and also a wave III of an upper degree. (If you want to learn more about Elliott Wave Theory, please follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory).

Elliott Wave Theory Motive Wave Structure

SOXX Last Wave and Target

SOXX began the last 5 swings at $386,02. Wave (1) ends at $476.53 with a Leading Diagonal structure, then pullbacks as wave (2) doing an irregular flat ending at $433.26. A nice rally born sending the ETF to $548.12 and complete the third swing. Actually, we have entered in a range phase that must be the wave ((4)). This wave ((4)) could done already at $514.92, but we cannot rule out visit to around $514.03 to complete a flat correction and then begin the last rally that we are expecting for.

Therefore, the rally should begin this December 2021 and we are targeted to $556.57 – $584.61 area. In that the cycle from 2018 should end and wave ((5)) of III. After completing this, we should see 3 or 7 swings correction that could send the ETF to around $375.00. Keep an eye to this movement that represent around the 30% of the SOXX.

Elliottwave Forecast updates one-hour charts 4 times a day and 4-hour charts once a day for all our 78 instruments. We do a daily live session where we guide our clients on the right side of the market. In addition, we have a chat room where our moderators will help you with any questions you have about what is happening in the market at the moment. Let’s trial 14 days for only $9.99 here: I want 14 days trial. Cancel Anytime.