NVIDIA Archives - Elliott Wave Forecast

Extreme SMH Zone: Hold Tight or Take Profits?

September 27, 2025 By EWFLuis

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) trades within the forecasted extreme zone of 309.83 to 353.03, showing signs of technical overheating. Analysts expect an average 12-month price target of 343.93, with bullish projections reaching up to 451.50. Strong demand for semiconductors—driven by AI, electric vehicles, and cloud infrastructure—continues to push momentum. All major moving averages, from the 10-day to the 200-day, point to a “Buy” signal. At the same time, indicators like RSI and STOCH suggest overbought conditions. Traders should watch for signs of consolidation or a pullback before the next leg higher.

From October 2025 into early 2026, SMH’s direction depends on interest rate trends, chip supply dynamics, and earnings from top holdings such as NVIDIA, TSMC, and Broadcom. The ETF holds a “Moderate Buy” rating, backed by 22 buy recommendations and 4 holds. While long-term growth in semiconductors looks solid, short-term risks may surface from global tensions or cyclical shifts. New investors might wait for clearer support levels or a dip before entering. Those already in the trade could protect gains by trimming positions or setting stop-loss levels as SMH moves through this high-risk zone.

Elliott Wave Outlook: SMH Daily Chart May 13th

SMH recently completed a complex double correction (w, x, y), confirming the shift from a failed zigzag (a, b, c) to a deeper structural reset. The breach of wave ((A)) by wave ((C)) and the August 2024 low signaled this transition early, with wave w ending at 200.49, wave x peaking at 269.66 through two diagonal formations, and wave y bottoming at 170.11—right within the Fibonacci extension zone of 186.80 to 167.22. From that low, SMH began a clear impulsive move upward, reinforcing the bullish outlook. As the structure unfolded, corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings were expected to support the trend. Therefore, buying the dips was the preferred strategy while momentum was holden.

We analyzed to focus on the 309.83 to 353.03 zone as a likely target for wave (V) to complete. This range marks a critical threshold where bullish exhaustion could trigger a broader market correction. With the impulse in motion and technical patterns aligning, traders should stay alert for signs of topping behavior once SMH approaches this zone. The setup favors continued upside in the near term, but disciplined risk management will be key as the ETF enters historically reactive levels.

Elliott Wave Outlook: SMH Daily Chart September 27th

SMH continues to push through a strong impulsive structure. All signs suggest wave V is already in motion. The weekly chart hints at wave III still unfolding, but we are going to assume a conservative mood for now. The structure from the 170.11 low remains solid. Bullish momentum dominates unless proven otherwise. We expect wave ((3)) to peak by late September. A swift correction in wave ((4)) may follow through October. If the pattern holds, November and December could bring a final rally. A broader reset may begin in early 2026.

SMH now trades inside the critical 309.83–353.03 zone. This area often signals exhaustion and potential reversal. Traders must stay alert and act with precision. The wave V structure looks clean and actionable. The strategy remains simple: buy dips after corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings. Momentum still favors the bulls, but risk increases inside this zone. A sharp correction could unfold at any moment. Watch for signs of topping or failed breakouts. Discipline and tactical awareness are essential. Ride the impulse while it lasts but stay ready to pivot.

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NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) Gained Over 60% From Our Blue Box Area

July 26, 2025 By EWF Vlada

Hello fellow traders. As our members know we have had many profitable trading setups recently. In this technical article, we are going to talk about another Elliott Wave trading setup we got in NVIDIA. The stock has gained more than 60% since we bought it in April. NVDA has completed its correction exactly at the Equal Legs zone, also known as the Blue Box Area. In this article, we’ll break down the Elliott Wave Forecast.

NVDA Elliott Wave Daily Chart 04.27.2025

The stock has given us a pullback against the 39.22 low. The pullback shows a clear 7-swing pattern, with the Blue Box (buyers’ zone) reached in the 101.78–76.16 area. We are calling the correction completed at the 83.65 low and are expecting a further rally toward new highs. We do not recommend selling the stock in any proposed pullback.

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NVDA Elliott Wave Daily Chart 04.27.2025

In less than three months, we are seeing great results. The stock has continued rallying from the Blue Box, just as expected. NVDA made a strong move toward new all-time highs, gaining more than 60% from our Blue Box buying zone.

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Elliott Wave Sequence In NVIDIA (NVDA) Suggests Rally From Support Area

July 22, 2025 By EWFRaj

Nvidia (NVDA) continues rally to new all-time highs from April-2025 low and reinforcing a robust bullish outlook. In daily, it ended 7 swings pullback at 86.62 low in 4.07.2025 low started from 1.07.2025 high. Above April-2025 low, it confirmed higher high bullish sequence & pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings should remain supported. Since April-2025 low, it favors rally in (3) of ((1)), while placed (1) at 115.44 high & (2) at 95.04 low in 4.21.2025. Above there, it placed 1 of (3) at 143.84 high, 2 as shallow connector at 132.93 low & 3 at 174.53 high. Wave (3) already extend beyond 2.0 Fibonacci extension of (1) & yet can see more upside. Within 1 of (3), it ended at ((i)) at 111.92 high, ((ii)) at 104.08 low, ((iii)) at 137.40 high, ((iv)) at 127.80 low & ((v)) at 143.84 high. Above 2 low, it placed ((i)) of 3 at 144 high, ((ii)) at 137.88 low, ((iii)) at 159.42 high, ((iv)) at 151.10 low & ((v)) at 174.53 high as 3 of (3).

It already reached the minimum area of 170.04 as inverse extension of connector. But it can see more upside as daily move showing highest momentum from April-2025 low. In 1-hour, Above ((iv)) low, it placed (i) of ((v)) at 167.89 high in 5 swings, (ii) at 162.02 low, (iii) at 172.87 high, (iv) at 168.90 low & (v) of ((v)) at 174.53 high ended as 3. Currently, it favors pullback in 4 in to 170.13 – 168.11 area before rally in 5 or at least 3 swing bounce. Within 4, it ended ((a)) at 171.26 low, ((b)) at 173.38 high & favors lower in ((c)) of 4. It should find support in extreme area soon to turn higher for two more highs to finish ((1)). The upside in 5 of (3) can extend towards 175.9 or higher, while above 168.11 low before correcting in (4). The next two highs expect to come with momentum divergence to finish cycle from April-2025 low. Later it should see bigger pullback against April-2025 low in 3, 7 or 11 swings. But if it extend higher & erase momentum divergence, then it can see more upside.

Nvidia (NVDA) 30-Minute Elliott Wave Technical Chart

NVDA Elliott Wave Technical Video

SMH Finds Support After Double Correction, Wave (V) in Motion

May 13, 2025 By EWFLuis

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) gives investors access to 25 major U.S.-listed semiconductor companies. The fund includes NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, QUALCOMM, ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Micron Technology, and AMD.

Analysts view SMH as a strong investment in a sector driving advancements in AI, cloud computing, and high-performance computing. While volatile, experts emphasize long-term growth, supported by rising demand for AI, 5G, and autonomous vehicles. Despite market fluctuations, SMH often outperforms when investor sentiment improves.

Investors closely monitor global supply chains, trade policies, and new chip innovations, which could shape future growth. With these factors influencing the market, SMH remains an attractive option for exposure to the semiconductor industry.

Last SMH Daily Chart January 16th

Earlier this year, on January 16, 2025, we analyzed the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and observed its sideways movement between $230 and $260 in the daily timeframe. As expected, the market rallied from $222.20, but momentum failed to break previous highs or reach the $269.50 level. Consequently, we adjusted our chart and identified Wave I as a leading diagonal that ended at $262.26. Since October 2024, the price traded within a Wave II correction, which we classified as a running flat correction.

At that time, we believed Wave III had already started, with Wave ((1)) of III topping at $257.20 before entering a Wave ((2)) pullback. As long as price action held above $240.62, we expected a bullish move targeting a break above $283.07.

However, while we favored the running flat correction scenario for Wave II, we acknowledged the possibility of an expanded flat correction. If the market had fallen below $240.62, SMH would have likely extended its decline toward the $235.29 – $228.61 range before completing Wave II and resuming its upward trend. (If you want to learn more about flat corrections, please follow these links: and .)

SMH Daily Chart May 13th

In our latest update, we observed that the zigzag correction (a, b, c) failed, leading to a double correction (w, x, y). This aligns with the fundamental concept that corrections move in 3, 7, or 11 swings, forming a simple correction, a double correction, or a triple correction. As analysts, we must assess which of these three scenarios is most likely to occur.

When wave (C) of ((W)) broke below wave (A), it served as an early signal that a double correction might unfold. This was later confirmed when the August 2024 low was breached. From the wave (III) high, the first leg of the double correction formed as a zigzag, ending wave w at 200.49. Following that, another zigzag pattern developed, featuring two diagonals’ structures one leading and one ending which marked the completion of wave x at 269.66. Finally, the double correction in wave y wrapped up at 170.11, completing wave (IV) within the Fibonacci extension zone of 186.80 – 167.22 (100% – 123%).

Current Outlook & Strategy

At present, it is clear that SMH is developing an impulse from the 170.11 low. The primary expectation is for the upward movement to persist, supported by corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings. Given this setup, the best strategy is to buy the dips, as the bullish trend remains intact.

Looking ahead, we are targeting the 309.83 – 353.03 zone as a potential area for wave (V) to complete. Once SMH reaches this range, a more significant correction in the market could follow.

Be good and Trade Smart!

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Nvidia Stock (NVDA): Elliott Wave Irregular Flat Pattern Analysis

February 11, 2025 By EWF Vlada

In this technical article we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of Nvidia Stock (NVDA) published in members area of the website. As our members know, we generally favor the long side in NVDA, due to impulsive bullish sequences. Recently, the stock has corrected the cycle from the August 90.68 low. We got a pull back which unfolded as an Irregular Flat pattern.

Before we take a look at the real market example of Expanded Flat, let’s explain the pattern in a few words.

Elliott Wave Expanded Flat: Key Concepts

Elliott Wave Flat is a 3 wave corrective pattern which could often be seen in the market nowadays. Inner subdivision is labeled as A,B,C , with inner 3,3,5 structure. Waves A and B have forms of corrective structures like zigzag, flat, double three or triple three. Third wave C is always 5 waves structure, either motive impulse or ending diagonal pattern. It’s important to notice that in Irregular Flat Pattern wave B completes above the starting point of wave A. Wave C ends bellow the ending point of wave A . Wave C of Flat completes usually between 1.00 to 1.236 Fibonacci extension of A related to B, but sometimes it could go up to 1.618 fibs ext.

At the graphic below, we can see 3 types of Elliott Wave Flat structures

Now, let’s take a look what Elliott Wave Flat Pattern looks like in the real market

NVDA 4H Elliott Wave Analysis (January 28, 2025)

Currently, NVDA is correcting the cycle from the 90.68 low. Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the pullback is unfolding as an Irregular Flat Pattern. When analyzing the lower time frames, we observe that the inner subdivisions of waves (A) and (B) in blue exhibit corrective sequences. Wave (B) has broken above the starting point of wave (A), while wave (C) has broken below the starting point of wave (B), which is characteristic of an Irregular Flat pattern.

At this stage, the (C) leg still requires another wave up to complete its structure as a 5-wave move. We recommend that our members avoid selling at this stage. The target for wave 5 in red would be the inverse 1.236 Fibonacci extension of wave 4.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave FLAT and other Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page

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NVDA 4H Update (February 6, 2025)

Nvidia made another leg down in wave 5 of (C), completing the pullback. Now, the 113.09 low is the key pivot for the proposed view. As long as the price stays above that level, we can count the correction as completed in an Irregular Flat Pattern. Otherwise, a break below 113.09 would open the possibility for further downside extension

Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. For additional information on the best trading strategies for Bitcoin, visit our Live Trading Room and stay updated with the latest insights in our Chat Room.

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Micron Technology Inc (MU) Ended the Cycle from December 2022 Low

October 17, 2024 By EWFLuis

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) designs, develops, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Compute and Networking Business Unit, Mobile Business Unit, Embedded Business Unit, and Storage Business Unit. Micron Technology, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.

MU Weekly Chart March 2023

As we see in the chart above, we ended an impulse as wave I at $96.96 high. Then, the market did an expanded flat correction (3-3-5) causing the price to drop to $48.43. We labelled this low as wave II. From here, we expected to continue the rally as long as the price stays above wave II. (If you want to learn more about flat corrections, please follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory).

MU Weekly Chart July 2024

In July, we adjusted the labels by calling (I) and (II) where waves I and II were on the chart a year ago. As you could see, MU hit the bottom and started a new bullish cycle breaking above $150.00. This generated a return of more than 200% of the capital. We called a wave III of (III) at $157.54 high and wave IV ended at $127.27 low. We expected to trade higher in wave V of (III) to reach the ideal zone of $164.83 – $176.47 where we should see a market reaction.

MU Weekly Chart October 2024

This is the latest update of Micron. Wave IV failed to withstand the market onslaught and broke below $127.27. This ended the cycle that started in December 2022 and we adjusted the movement as wave I of (III) ended at $157.57 high. MU did a bearish impulse ending at $84.12 low and we called it wave ((A)) of II. Currently, it is trading in the corrective wave ((B)). Wave (A) ended at $106.75 high. The correction ended wave (B) at $98.94 low. Now wave (C) has already started a new rally and we expect to reach the $130.03 – $149.15 area to culminate wave ((B)) and turn lower in ((C)). The idea is valid as long as the market stays below $157.57 or above $48.43. If the market breaks above wave I, then wave II is most likely over.

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