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NVDA Delivers Risk-Free Setup from Blue Box Area

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In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of NVDA. In which, the rally from 07 April 2025 low is unfolding as an impulse structure. Showing a higher high sequence favored more upside extension to take place. Therefore, we advised members not to sell the stock & buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

NVDA 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 11.07.2025

NVDA Delivers Risk-Free Setup from Blue Box Area

Here’s the 1-hour Elliott wave chart from the 11.07.2025 Midday update. In which, the cycle from the 21 April 2025 low ended in wave (3) at $212.19 high. Down from there, the stock made a pullback in wave (4) to correct that cycle. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave double three structure where wave W ended at $195 low. Wave X bounce ended at $202.92 high & wave Y managed to reach the blue box area at $185.66- $174.97. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for the next leg higher or for a 3 wave bounce minimum.

NVDA Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From

NVDA Delivers Risk-Free Setup from Blue Box Area

This is the latest 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 11.10.2025 Post-Market update. In which the NVDA is showing a reaction higher taking place, right after ending the double correction within the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the long position at the blue box area. However, a break above $212.19 high is still needed to confirm the next extension higher towards $220.01- $232.72 area minimum & avoid a double correction lower.

If you are looking for real-time analysis in NVDA along with the other Stocks & ETFs then join us with a 14-Day Trial for the latest updates & price action.

Success in trading requires proper risk and money management as well as an understanding of Elliott Wave theory, cycle analysis, and correlation. We have developed a very good trading strategy that defines the entry.

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Extreme SMH Zone: Hold Tight or Take Profits?

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The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) trades within the forecasted extreme zone of 309.83 to 353.03, showing signs of technical overheating. Analysts expect an average 12-month price target of 343.93, with bullish projections reaching up to 451.50. Strong demand for semiconductors—driven by AI, electric vehicles, and cloud infrastructure—continues to push momentum. All major moving averages, from the 10-day to the 200-day, point to a “Buy” signal. At the same time, indicators like RSI and STOCH suggest overbought conditions. Traders should watch for signs of consolidation or a pullback before the next leg higher.

From October 2025 into early 2026, SMH’s direction depends on interest rate trends, chip supply dynamics, and earnings from top holdings such as NVIDIA, TSMC, and Broadcom. The ETF holds a “Moderate Buy” rating, backed by 22 buy recommendations and 4 holds. While long-term growth in semiconductors looks solid, short-term risks may surface from global tensions or cyclical shifts. New investors might wait for clearer support levels or a dip before entering. Those already in the trade could protect gains by trimming positions or setting stop-loss levels as SMH moves through this high-risk zone.

Elliott Wave Outlook: SMH Daily Chart May 13th

SMH Daily Chart May 13th

SMH recently completed a complex double correction (w, x, y), confirming the shift from a failed zigzag (a, b, c) to a deeper structural reset. The breach of wave ((A)) by wave ((C)) and the August 2024 low signaled this transition early, with wave w ending at 200.49, wave x peaking at 269.66 through two diagonal formations, and wave y bottoming at 170.11—right within the Fibonacci extension zone of 186.80 to 167.22. From that low, SMH began a clear impulsive move upward, reinforcing the bullish outlook. As the structure unfolded, corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings were expected to support the trend. Therefore, buying the dips was the preferred strategy while momentum was holden.

We analyzed to focus on the 309.83 to 353.03 zone as a likely target for wave (V) to complete. This range marks a critical threshold where bullish exhaustion could trigger a broader market correction. With the impulse in motion and technical patterns aligning, traders should stay alert for signs of topping behavior once SMH approaches this zone. The setup favors continued upside in the near term, but disciplined risk management will be key as the ETF enters historically reactive levels.

Elliott Wave Outlook: SMH Daily Chart September 27th

Elliott Wave Outlook: SMH Daily Chart September 27th

SMH continues to push through a strong impulsive structure. All signs suggest wave V is already in motion. The weekly chart hints at wave III still unfolding, but we are going to assume a conservative mood for now. The structure from the 170.11 low remains solid. Bullish momentum dominates unless proven otherwise. We expect wave ((3)) to peak by late September. A swift correction in wave ((4)) may follow through October. If the pattern holds, November and December could bring a final rally. A broader reset may begin in early 2026.

SMH now trades inside the critical 309.83–353.03 zone. This area often signals exhaustion and potential reversal. Traders must stay alert and act with precision. The wave V structure looks clean and actionable. The strategy remains simple: buy dips after corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings. Momentum still favors the bulls, but risk increases inside this zone. A sharp correction could unfold at any moment. Watch for signs of topping or failed breakouts. Discipline and tactical awareness are essential. Ride the impulse while it lasts but stay ready to pivot.

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The Blue Box Bounce: NVDA’s Perfect Reaction Higher

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In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 4-hour Elliott Wave Charts of NVDA. We presented to members at the elliottwave-forecast. In which, the rally from 07 April 2025 low is unfolding as an impulse structure. Showing a higher high sequence favored more upside extension to take place. Therefore, we advised members not to sell the stock & buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

NVDA 4-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 9.08.2025

The Blue Box Bounce: NVDA's Perfect Reaction Higher

Here’s the 4-hour Elliott wave chart from the 9.08.2025 update. In which, the cycle from the 21 April 2025 low ended in wave ((3)) at $184.48 high. Down from there, the stock made a pullback in wave ((4)) to correct that cycle. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave flat structure where wave (A) ended at $168 low. Wave (B) bounce ended at $184.47 high & wave (C) managed to reach the blue box area at $167.02- $156.24. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for the next leg higher or for a 3 wave bounce minimum.

NVDA Latest 4-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 9.21.2025

The Blue Box Bounce: NVDA's Perfect Reaction Higher

This is the latest 4-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 9.21.2025 Weekend update. In which the NVDA is showing a reaction higher taking place, right after ending the zigzag correction within the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the long position at the blue box area. However, a break above $184.48 high is still needed to confirm the next extension higher towards $189.48- $197.31 area minimum & avoid a double correction lower.

If you are looking for real-time analysis in NVDA along with the other Stocks & ETFs then join us with a 14-Day Trial for the latest updates & price action.

Success in trading requires proper risk and money management as well as an understanding of Elliott Wave theory, cycle analysis, and correlation. We have developed a very good trading strategy that defines the entry.

Stop loss and take profit levels with high accuracy and allow you to take a risk-free position, shortly after taking it by protecting your wallet. If you want to learn all about it and become a professional trader. Then join our service by taking a Trial

NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) Gained Over 60% From Our Blue Box Area

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Hello fellow traders. As our members know we have had many profitable trading setups recently.  In this technical article, we are going to talk about another Elliott Wave trading setup we got in NVIDIA. The stock has gained more than 60%   since we bought it in April.  NVDA has completed its correction exactly at the Equal Legs zone, also known as the Blue Box Area. In this article, we’ll break down the Elliott Wave Forecast.

NVDA Elliott Wave Daily  Chart 04.27.2025

The stock has given us a pullback against the 39.22 low. The pullback shows a clear 7-swing pattern, with the Blue Box (buyers’ zone) reached in the 101.78–76.16 area. We are calling the correction completed at the 83.65 low and are expecting a further rally toward new highs. We do not recommend selling the stock in any proposed pullback.

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Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

NVDA

NVDA Elliott Wave Daily  Chart 04.27.2025

In less than three months, we are seeing great results. The stock has continued rallying from the Blue Box, just as expected. NVDA made a strong move toward new all-time highs, gaining more than 60% from our Blue Box buying zone.

Reminder for members: Our chat rooms in the membership area are available 24 hours a day, providing expert insights on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions about the market, Elliott Wave patterns, or technical analysis. We’re here to help.

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Elliott Wave Sequence In NVIDIA (NVDA) Suggests Rally From Support Area

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Nvidia (NVDA) continues rally to new all-time highs from April-2025 low and reinforcing a robust bullish outlook. In daily, it ended 7 swings pullback at 86.62 low in 4.07.2025 low started from 1.07.2025 high. Above April-2025 low, it confirmed higher high bullish sequence & pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings should remain supported. Since April-2025 low, it favors rally in (3) of ((1)), while placed (1) at 115.44 high & (2) at 95.04 low in 4.21.2025. Above there, it placed 1 of (3) at 143.84 high, 2 as shallow connector at 132.93 low & 3 at 174.53 high. Wave (3) already extend beyond 2.0 Fibonacci extension of (1) & yet can see more upside. Within 1 of (3), it ended at ((i)) at 111.92 high, ((ii)) at 104.08 low, ((iii)) at 137.40 high, ((iv)) at 127.80 low & ((v)) at 143.84 high. Above 2 low, it placed ((i)) of 3 at 144 high, ((ii)) at 137.88 low, ((iii)) at 159.42 high, ((iv)) at 151.10 low & ((v)) at 174.53 high as 3 of (3).

It already reached the minimum area of 170.04 as inverse extension of connector. But it can see more upside as daily move showing highest momentum from April-2025 low. In 1-hour, Above ((iv)) low, it placed (i) of ((v)) at 167.89 high in 5 swings, (ii) at 162.02 low, (iii) at 172.87 high, (iv) at 168.90 low & (v) of ((v)) at 174.53 high ended as 3. Currently, it favors pullback in 4 in to 170.13 – 168.11 area before rally in 5 or at least 3 swing bounce. Within 4, it ended ((a)) at 171.26 low, ((b)) at 173.38 high & favors lower in ((c)) of 4. It should find support in extreme area soon to turn higher for two more highs to finish ((1)). The upside in 5 of (3) can extend towards 175.9 or higher, while above 168.11 low before correcting in (4). The next two highs expect to come with momentum divergence to finish cycle from April-2025 low. Later it should see bigger pullback against April-2025 low in 3, 7 or 11 swings. But if it extend higher & erase momentum divergence, then it can see more upside.

Nvidia (NVDA) 30-Minute Elliott Wave Technical Chart

NVDA Elliott Wave Technical Video

SMH Finds Support After Double Correction, Wave (V) in Motion

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The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) gives investors access to 25 major U.S.-listed semiconductor companies. The fund includes NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, QUALCOMM, ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Micron Technology, and AMD.

Analysts view SMH as a strong investment in a sector driving advancements in AI, cloud computing, and high-performance computing. While volatile, experts emphasize long-term growth, supported by rising demand for AI, 5G, and autonomous vehicles. Despite market fluctuations, SMH often outperforms when investor sentiment improves.

Investors closely monitor global supply chains, trade policies, and new chip innovations, which could shape future growth. With these factors influencing the market, SMH remains an attractive option for exposure to the semiconductor industry.

Last SMH Daily Chart January 16th

Earlier this year, on January 16, 2025, we analyzed the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and observed its sideways movement between $230 and $260 in the daily timeframe. As expected, the market rallied from $222.20, but momentum failed to break previous highs or reach the $269.50 level. Consequently, we adjusted our chart and identified Wave I as a leading diagonal that ended at $262.26. Since October 2024, the price traded within a Wave II correction, which we classified as a running flat correction.

At that time, we believed Wave III had already started, with Wave ((1)) of III topping at $257.20 before entering a Wave ((2)) pullback. As long as price action held above $240.62, we expected a bullish move targeting a break above $283.07.

However, while we favored the running flat correction scenario for Wave II, we acknowledged the possibility of an expanded flat correction. If the market had fallen below $240.62, SMH would have likely extended its decline toward the $235.29 – $228.61 range before completing Wave II and resuming its upward trend.  (If you want to learn more about flat corrections, please follow these links: and .)

SMH Daily Chart May 13th

SMH Daily Chart May 13th

In our latest update, we observed that the zigzag correction (a, b, c) failed, leading to a double correction (w, x, y). This aligns with the fundamental concept that corrections move in 3, 7, or 11 swings, forming a simple correction, a double correction, or a triple correction. As analysts, we must assess which of these three scenarios is most likely to occur.

When wave (C) of ((W)) broke below wave (A), it served as an early signal that a double correction might unfold. This was later confirmed when the August 2024 low was breached. From the wave (III) high, the first leg of the double correction formed as a zigzag, ending wave w at 200.49. Following that, another zigzag pattern developed, featuring two diagonals’ structures one leading and one ending which marked the completion of wave x at 269.66. Finally, the double correction in wave y wrapped up at 170.11, completing wave (IV) within the Fibonacci extension zone of 186.80 – 167.22 (100% – 123%).

Current Outlook & Strategy

At present, it is clear that SMH is developing an impulse from the 170.11 low. The primary expectation is for the upward movement to persist, supported by corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings. Given this setup, the best strategy is to buy the dips, as the bullish trend remains intact.

Looking ahead, we are targeting the 309.83 – 353.03 zone as a potential area for wave (V) to complete. Once SMH reaches this range, a more significant correction in the market could follow.

Be good and Trade Smart!

 

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