We provide round the clock coverage of many World Indices including US, European, UK, Australian and Asian Indices. Today, we will be taking a look at the long-term view of Nifty-NSE Index from India. The NIFTY 50 index National Stock Exchange of India’s benchmark broad based stock market index for the Indian equity market. Full form of NIFTY is National Stock Exchange Fifty. It represents the weighted average of 50 Indian company stocks in 13 sectors and is one of the two main stock indices used in India, the other being the BSE Sensex. The Nifty 50 was launched 1 April 1996 and we are covering it today as Nifty50 is the world’s most actively trade contract.

The NIFTY 50 covers 13 sectors. It gives weightage of 39.47% to financial services, 15.31% to Energy, 13.01% to IT, 12.38% to Consumer Goods, 6.11 to Automobile and nil to agricultural sector and has a base capital f Rs 2.06 trillion.

Nifty has been rallying since August 2019 and has already broken above June 2019 peak which creates an incomplete bullish sequence from October 2018 low and hence call for more upside as far as August 2019 low remains  in place. Taking a step back, let’s take a look at the weekly chart of Nifty Index and how we are labelling the rally from all time low and since 2008 low.

Nifty-NSE Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis

Nifty-NSE Index rally from the all time low is impulsive and Index is reaching 161.8 Fibonacci extension (12599) of the rally from all time low to January 2008 peak projected higher from October 2008 low. 161.8 Fibonacci extension (12599)  is the typical extension for wave (III) and this level being reached would confirm this we are indeed in a super cycle wave (III). Up from red IV low (10.26.2018), we can see a bullish incomplete sequence with a target between 12739 – 13237 area. Bear in mind, we could be creating a bullish nest within wave V red or could be ending wave ((3)) already and turn into a diagonal in wave V. Based on broader market correlation, we are favoring the idea of a bullish nest within wave V red and as far as 8.23.2019 low remains in place, we are expecting at least 1 more swing higher or even more upside based on whether wave V ends up being an Ending Diagonal Elliott wave structure or a regular impulse. Once super cycle wave (III) has completed, we would expect a larger wave (IV) pull back to correct the cycle from October 2008 low before Index turns higher in super cycle wave (V).

 

Nifty Daily Chart Elliott Wave Chart

Below is a 480 minute Elliott wave chart of Nifty-NSE Index and we can see Index has already broken above 6.3.2019 peak which creates an incomplete bullish sequence from 10.26.2018 low. This means as far as dips hold above 8.23.2019 low, we should see more upside in the Index at least towards 12739 – 13237 area. We don’t like selling the Index and expect dips to remain supported in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot at 8.23.2019 low remains intact.

 

 

In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of 1 hour Elliott Wave Charts of Nifty index from India, which we presented to members at elliottwave-forecast.com. In which, the rally from 1/29/2019 low showed higher high sequence favored more upside to take place. Also, the right side tag pointed higher against 11109.98 low looking for more upside. Therefore, we advised members not to sell the index & buying the blue boxes remained the preferred path looking for 3 wave reaction higher at least. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

Nifty 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 6/16/2019 Update

Nifty 4 hour Elliott Wave Chart from 6/16/2019 weekend update, in which the rally from 1/29/2019 low showed higher high sequence. Also, it’s important to note here that the right side is pointing higher calling for more upside as far as dips remain above 11109.98 low. Up from there, the rally to 12103.05 high ended wave 1. Down from there, the index was expected to make a 3 wave pullback as zigzag structure within wave 2 before more upside can be seen. Therefore, our strategy remained buying the wave 2 Elliott wave dip towards the blue box area looking for more upside.

Nifty 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 6/19/2019 Update

Here’s Nifty 1 hour Elliott Wave Chart from 6/19/2019 London update, in which the index managed to reach the blue box area at 11667.36-11460.36 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of ((a))-((b)) as expected. And provided buying opportunity to our members in that area looking for next extension higher or for 3 wave bounce at least.

Nifty 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 6/20/2019 Update

 

Here’s 1 hour Elliott Wave Chart of Nifty from 6/20/2019 London update, in which the index provided the buying opportunity ta blue box area & bounced higher as expected. Allowing members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the trade at the blue box area. However, a break above 12103.05 high from 6/03/2019 peak remains to be seen for final confirmation of next extension higher & to avoid double correction lower in wave 2 pullback.

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NIFTY is showing an incomplete sequence to the upside in the short term, favoring more upside while above 11/26 low (10487.1). Near term, cycle from 10/26 low (10004) remains in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Intermediate Wave (A) ended at 10774.7 as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure and Intermediate wave (B) ended at 10487.13 low.

Internal of wave (A) unfolded as an impulse where Minor wave 1 ended at 10285.1, Minor wave 2 ended at 10105.10, Minor wave 3 ended at 10619.55, Minor wave 4 ended at 10440.55, and Minor wave 5 of (A) ended at 10774.7. Intermediate wave (B) pullback unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave W ended at 10562.35, Minor wave X ended at 10646.25 and Minor wave Y of (B) ended at 10487.13.

Up from 10487.13 low, Intermediate wave (C) is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave 1 ended at 10941.20. The Index is now correcting cycle from 11/26 low within wave 2 in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the pullback and expect to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside as far as pullback stays above 10487.13 low

NIFTY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

 

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Short term Elliott Wave view on Nifty suggests that the decline to 10004 on Oct 26 low ended Primary wave ((2)). This means that Index has ended the selloff which started from Aug 28 high (11760.20). It is currently either in the process of eventually breaking to new high again or at least rallying in 3 waves to correct the cycle from Aug 28 high before turning lower again.

Up from 10004, Minor wave 1 ended at 10645.5 and unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Minute wave ((i)) of 1 ended at 10128.85, Minute wave ((ii)) of 1 ended at 10012.65. Minute wave ((iii)) of 1 ended at 10606.95, Minute wave ((iv)) of 1 ended at 10477 and Minute wave ((v)) of 1 is proposed complete at 10644.55. Near term, while below 10644.55, Nifty has scope to turn lower 1 more time in Minute wave ((c)) of 2 before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the Index and expect Index to extend higher at least 1 more leg higher as far as pivot at 10004 low stays intact. It’s imperative for dips in Nifty to hold above Oct 26 low (10004) as a break below indicates a double correction and can potentially exposes a lot more downside.

Nifty 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

Nifty Midcap Index has dropped from a high of 5387 to close at 4622.85 on Friday losing 14% in the month of September 2018. In this article, we will take a look at the Elliott Wave view to determine whether Index has found a peak and now turned bearish or at least started a larger correction or if the larger trend is still  up and this dip is another opportunity to buy.

NIFTY MIDCAP Index Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis

Nifty MIDCAP super cycle from 2009 low remains in progress as an impulse and we believe the Index is still within Super Cycle degree wave (III). Rally from March 2009 low to November 2010 was  Super Cycle wave (I), dip to August 2013 low completed wave (II). Up from there rally to April 2015 peak (3581) completed wave cycle degree wave I of (III), dip to February 2016 low (2633) completed cycle degree wave II and we can see that rally from there was an extended wave III in cycle degree. Within the cycle degree wave III, wave ((1)) ended in October 2016 (4183), wave ((2)) completed in December 2016 (3471), wave ((3)) completed in July 2017 (4816), wave ((4)) completed in August 2017 (4399) and rally in to January 2018 peak (5722) completed wave ((5)) and the entire cycle degree wave III. Nifty Midcap Index is currently in cycle degree wave IV pull back to correct the cycle from February 2016  (2633) low as the chart below shows

NIFTY MIDCAP Daily Elliott Wave Analysis

Daily chart of Nifty MIDCADP Index shows wave IV pull back is unfolding as a double three ((W))-((X))-((Y)) Elliott wave structure . Decline from wave III peak (5722) to 4787 was in 3 waves and has been labelled as wave ((W)), this was followed by a FLAT to 5474 that we have labelled as wave ((X)). Index has already made a new low below ((W)) low and now reaching the inflection area between 4535.48 – 3950.56 where we expect wave IV to end and rally to resume in wave V or Index to bounce in a larger 3 waves at least. Alternatively, Index completed wave ((W)) at 4706.80 (July 17 2018) and bounce to 5387.90 (3 September 2018) completed wave ((X)) and we are currently ending 5th swing, under this scenario, next bounce in Index would fail below 5387.80 high for another swing lower towards 4370.96 – 3742.09 to complete wave IV pull back and then turn up again.