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$CPER Copper Index Tracker Long Term Cycles

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$CPER Copper Index Tracker Long Term Cycles

Firstly the CPER Copper Index Tracking instrument has an inception date of 11/15/2011. There is data in the HG_F copper futures before this going back many years. That shows copper made an all time high on February 15th, 2011 at 4.649.  Translated into this instrument, it is mentioned on the monthly chart. The decline from there into the January 2016 lows appeared to have been a double three in the commodity HG_F.  Thus I will work with that idea in this CPER instrument.

The analysis continues below the CPER monthly chart.

Secondly the CPER Copper Index Tracking instrument from the all time highs made what is favored to be a double three correction lower. This ended at the 12.97 lows in January 2016. From the January 2016 lows up into the December 2017 highs appeared to be another double three structure. The bounce was strong enough on momentum indicators to suggest it had ended the cycle lower from the all time highs.

Thirdly, the CPER Copper Index Tracking instrument decline from the December 2017 highs is very ambiguous.  This means it is open to more than one interpretation as is most any chart by an Elliott wave analyst. The key points here are as follows. From the 12.87 low from March 20th 2020 created a bearish sequence by taking out the lows from January 2016. This means it could have been a 5th swing lower from the all time highs. The bounce from there in our trend system looks strong and impulsive as well as again suggesting it ended the cycle lower from the all time highs.

In conclusion: Copper has not made another low under the January 2016 lows as did CPER. Each have went well past the December 2017 highs. The price action has denied the usual 7th swing lower in CPER.  This instrument should hold well above the March 2020 lows when it corrects the cycle up from there.

Thanks for looking. Feel free to come visit our website.  Please check out our services Free for 14 days to see if we can be of help. Kind regards & good luck trading. Lewis Jones of the ElliottWave-Forecast.com Team

COPPER ( $HG_F ) Buying The Dips After Elliott Wave Double Three

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Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of  Copper Futures ( $HG_F) published in members area of the Elliottwave-Forecast . As our members know, Copper is showing higher high sequences in the cycle from the March low ( 19720).  Consequently , we recommended our members to avoid selling Copper in any pull back and keep on buying the dips in 3,7,11 swings whenever get chance. Recently we got short term pull back that has unfolded as Elliott Wave Double Three pattern.  In further text we’re going to explain the forecast and Elliott Wave Pattern and trading strategy.

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Double Three pattern.

Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern

Double three is the most important and common pattern in the market these days, also known as 7 swing structure.

It’s a very reliable pattern which is giving us good trading entries with clearly defined invalidation levels and target areas.
The picture below presents what Elliott Wave Double Three pattern looks like. It has (W),(X),(Y) labeling and 3,3,3 inner structure, which means all of these 3 legs are corrective sequences. Each (W) and (Y) are made of 3 swings , they’re having A,B,C structure in lower degree, or alternatively they could have W,X,Y labeling.

Copper

Copper 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 12.22.2020

Copper  Short term pull back is unfolding as Elliott Wave double three pattern with inner labeling: ((w))((x))((y)) black. Each leg of the pull back has corrective structure. Pull back has incomplete sequences at the moment. Due to lower low structure we call for more short term weakness toward 3.4930-3.4695 area ( blue box- buyers zone) .We don’t recommend selling it. Strategy is buying the dips at the marked blue box area. As Copper is bullish against the 3.0337 low, we expect to see 3 waves bounce at least from the mentioned zone. As soon as the price reach 50 Fibonacci Retracement against the ((x)) black peak (3.5928), we should make long positions Risk Free ( put SL at BE).

You can learn more about Elliott Wave Double Three Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

Copper

Copper 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 12.23.2020

Copper made proposed extension down and reached buyers zone. At this moment we can count clear 7 swings down from the peak, when pull back 4 red ended at 2.4782 low as Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern.  Copper found buyers at blue box: 3.4930-3.4695 area . The bounce already reached 50 fibs against the ((x)) high, so all long positions should be risk free at this stage.  Current view suggests we can be ending short term cycle from the 3.478 low as ((i)) black. We expect to see 3 waves pull back ((ii)) black, and further rally.

copper

Copper 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 12.28.2020

Eventually we got 3 waves pull back in ((ii)) and further rally as expected. Now we would like to see break above 3 red in order to confirm next leg up is in progress.

Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time.  Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site.

Copper

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Elliott Wave view: Copper (HG) Still Has Further Upside

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Short term Elliott Wave view in Copper (HG) suggests that the dips to 3.11 on November 11 ended wave ((ii)). The metal has resumed higher and ended wave ((iii)) at 3.52. Internal of wave ((iii)) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((ii)) low, wave i ended at 3.26 and pullback in wave ii ended at 3.169. The metal resumed higher in wave iii towards 3.3, and pullback in wave iv ended at 3.235. Final leg higher in wave v ended at 3.33. This completed wave (i) in higher degree.

The metal then pullback in wave (ii) which ended at 3.28. Up from there, wave (iii) ended at 3.50 with internal also as a 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. From there, dips to wave (iv) ended at 3.43, and wave (v) completed at 3.52. This 5 waves move higher ended cycle from November 11 low in wave ((iii)). The metal then pullback in 3 swing (w)-(x)-(y) which found buyers at the blue box equal leg area. Wave ((iv)) is proposed complete at 3.439 and copper has turned higher from the blue box. It now needs to break above wave ((iii)) at 3.50 to avoid a double correction. As far as wave ((ii)) pivot at 3.11 stays intact, dips should continue to find support in 3, 7 or 11 swing for more upside.

Copper (HG) 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

Copper Elliott Wave

Copper (HG) Elliott Wave Video

Elliott Wave View: Copper (HG) Correction in Progress

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Short term Elliott Wave View in Copper (HG) indicates that the metal has ended the rally from March 19 low at $3.218. The entire rally is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse structure. The 5 waves move higher ended wave ((1)) at $3.218. Wave ((2)) pullback is currently in progress to correct cycle from March 19 low in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes.

Down from wave ((1)) high at $3.218, wave ((i)) ended at $3.126 and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at $3.161. The metal then resumed lower in wave ((iii)) towards $3.077 and bounce in wave ((iv)) ended at $3.1125. The metal is expected to end wave ((v)) soon which should also complete wave A in higher degree. Afterwards, it should rally in wave B to correct cycle from October 21 peak before turning lower again.

Near term, as far as pivot at $3.218 high stays intact, expect rally to fail below there in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. The larger degree structure as explained in the video suggests the metal has broken higher from multi decade consolidation which implies a bullish outlook. Thus, the anticipated correction/pullback in wave ((2)) is within the context of a bullish market.

Copper (HG) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Copper (HG) Elliott Wave Chart

Copper (HG) Elliott Wave Video

$CPER Copper Index Tracker Long Term Corrective Cycles

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$CPER Copper Index Tracker Long Term Corrective Cycles

Firstly the CPER Copper Index Tracking instrument has an inception date of 11/15/2011. There is data in the HG_F copper futures before this going back many years. That shows copper made an all time high on February 15th, 2011 at 4.649.  Translated into this instrument, it is mentioned on the monthly chart. The decline from there into the January 2016 lows appeared to have been a double three in the commodity HG_F.  Thus I will work with that idea in this CPER instrument.

The analysis continues below the CPER monthly chart.

Secondly the CPER Copper Index Tracking instrument from the all time highs made what is favored to be a double three correction lower. This ended at the 12.97 lows in January 2016. From the January 2016 lows up into the December 2017 highs appeared to be another double three structure. The bounce was strong enough on momentum indicators to suggest it had ended the cycle lower from the all time highs.

Thirdly, the CPER Copper Index Tracking instrument decline from the December 2017 highs is very ambiguous.  This means it is open to more than one interpretation as is most any chart by an Elliott wave analyst. The key points here are as follows. From the 12.87 low from March 20th 2020 created a bearish sequence by taking out the lows from January 2016. This means it is in a 5th swing lower from the all time highs. The 5th swing target area is highlighted at 11.83-9.60 on the monthly chart above. Sometimes this area is not reached as this one did in view 2. The bounce from there in our trend system looks strong and impulsive as well as suggests it ended the cycle lower from the all time highs.

In conclusion: Copper did not make that new low and did remain above the January 2016 lows. For that reason I will prefer view 1 that this instrument will hold above the March 2020 lows when it corrects the cycle up from there. If it gets below the March 2020 lows then look for new low in the 5.98 area to be the end of a corrective cycle.

Thanks for looking. Feel free to come visit our website.  Please check out our services Free for 14 days to see if we can be of help. Kind regards & good luck trading. Lewis Jones of the ElliottWave-Forecast.com Team

Copper Looking for Bullish Breakout

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Since bottoming in January 2016 low at $1.93, Copper has traded in a narrow range between $1.9 – $3.3. Earlier this year, the red metal collapsed to the lowest in more than 4 years at $1.9725. This happened due to the Covid-19 breakout around the world which dampens global growth. However, despite the extremely challenging environment in global economy, the metal has climbed back 50% in the past few months.

Several factors contribute to this rally: China’s economic recovery, massive stimulus by global central banks, and lower US Dollar.  As China’s economy begin to recover in the second quarter of 2020, Copper started to climb its way up. Robust growth in China’s industrial and service sectors have supported the price of the metal, while other nations continue to combat the pandemic. Despite the resurgence of the virus, China’s factory activities continue to improve for fifth consecutive month in July 2020. China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 51.1 in July 2020, beating the market expectation of 50.7.

The massive stimulus package by major central banks around the world to counter the economic fallout also set the floor and continue to support the price of the metal. Solid growth demand in China together with eventual revival in the manufacturing sectors of major economies can see Copper price to trade higher in the coming months.

Copper Monthly Chart

Monthly chart of Copper above shows the metal has traded in a narrowing range since 2002 low.  The metal broke below the ascending trend line from 2002 low in March 2020 this year. However, the breakout was brief and the metal has since recovered. Currently, it’s pushing against the bearish trend line from Feb 2011 high. A break above the descending trend line can start a new bullish market for the metal.

Copper Weekly Elliott Wave Chart

Copper looking to start a new bullish market

Weekly Elliott Wave Chart of Copper above shows the rally from January 2016 low (1.932) as 5 waves impulse, which ended either wave I or wave A. Then the pullback to $1.972 in March 2020 earlier this year ended wave II or B. The metal has since rallied higher within wave III. The rally from March 2020 low also looks impulsive and soon should end wave ((1)). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((2)) to correct the rally from March low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes.

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