In this Elliott Wave update, we examine the long-term structure in NuScale Power Corporation ($SMR). The stock completed a strong 5-wave advance from the November 2023 low, ending the first major bullish cycle in October 2025. From there, SMR entered a larger corrective phase that unfolded in 3 swings as an A-B-C structure.
That correction appears to have ended at the July 2026 low. As a result, the next bullish leg is now expected to be taking place, with the structure favoring a new 5-wave impulse higher. The first major upside target comes within the $26–$38 area.
5 Wave Impulse + ABC correction
SMR Completed 5 Waves From November 2023
Looking at the weekly chart, $SMR established an important low in November 2023 and then started a powerful advance.
The rally developed through a clear Elliott Wave impulsive structure. Waves (1) through (4) built the move before wave (5) eventually pushed the stock to a major high in October 2025. Therefore, the entire advance from November 2023 can be counted as a completed 5-wave cycle in wave ((1)).
Once that impulse ended, a larger correction against the November 2023 low became due.
Decline From October 2025 Unfolded in 3 Swings
From the October 2025 peak, $SMR turned sharply lower. However, the decline did not develop as a clean bearish five-wave impulse. Instead, price unfolded in an overlapping A-B-C correction.
Wave (A) produced the initial decline, followed by a corrective bounce in wave (B). Afterward, another leg lower in wave (C) completed the larger wave ((2)) correction.
Most importantly, wave (C) appears to have reached its conclusion at the July 2026 low.
This structure suggests the decline from October 2025 represented a correction of the prior bullish cycle rather than the beginning of a new long-term bearish trend.
July 2026 Low May Have Completed Wave ((2))
The July low now represents the key turning point in the current Elliott Wave count.
Since that low, price has started to stabilize and turn higher. If wave ((2)) has indeed finished there, $SMR should now be entering the early stages of the next larger bullish sequence.
In other words, the focus shifts away from the completed correction and toward the development of another impulsive move higher.
New 5-Wave Impulse Is Expected
The preferred path calls for $SMR to advance from the July 2026 low in a new 5-wave impulsive sequence.
Initially, wave 1 should move higher, followed by a corrective wave 2 pullback. After that correction finishes, the stronger wave 3 portion of the advance can begin.
Therefore, short-term pullbacks can still occur as the structure develops. However, they should remain corrective while the July low continues to hold.
The expected sequence is:
- Wave 1 higher
- Corrective wave 2 pullback
- Strong wave 3 advance
- Wave 4 correction
- Final wave 5 higher
This would complete the next impulsive cycle from the July 2026 low.
$26–$38 Is the First Major Upside Target
Most importantly, the first major target for the new bullish cycle comes between $26.42 and $38.29.
This region represents the 38.2%–61.8% retracement of the prior decline, with the midpoint near $32.36.
Consequently, the $26–$38 area should become the first important objective as the new bullish sequence develops.
A sustained impulsive advance into that region would strengthen the view that the July 2026 low completed wave ((2)) and that a larger bullish cycle is underway.
Bigger Picture Remains Bullish
Although $SMR experienced a substantial decline from the October 2025 high, the Elliott Wave structure still favors the larger bullish side.
The advance from November 2023 unfolded impulsively, while the decline that followed developed in only three waves. This combination supports the interpretation that the selloff represented a correction within a larger bullish sequence.
Therefore, as long as the July 2026 low remains intact, the right side should continue to favor higher prices.
Technical Summary
To summarize, $SMR completed a 5-wave advance from the November 2023 low, ending the first bullish cycle in October 2025.
The subsequent decline unfolded in 3 swings as an A-B-C correction, and that structure appears to have ended at the July 2026 low in wave ((2)).
From there, $SMR is expected to begin a new 5-wave impulse higher. While corrective pullbacks should occur along the way, the first major upside objective comes within the $26–$38 area.
If the bullish sequence continues to develop as expected, this zone should represent only the first major target for the next leg of the longer-term advance.
