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PLTR Last Leg? Why Palantir Could Be Approaching a Critical Correction

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Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) continues to dominate the AI-driven data analytics space, recently surging over 130% year-to-date to trade near $184.63. Investors have responded enthusiastically to its expanding government contracts, including a $10 billion U.S. Army deal and a £1.5 billion defense partnership with the U.K. These wins have propelled Palantir’s Q2 earnings past expectations, with $1 billion in revenue and 16 cents EPS. As a result, the company raised its full-year guidance. However, its valuation raises concerns: with a forward P/E ratio above 200, Palantir must deliver sustained earnings growth to justify its premium. Analysts remain divided, issuing a consensus “Hold” rating and setting price targets that range widely from $45 to $215—highlighting both upside potential and valuation risk.

Meanwhile, Palantir continues to expand its commercial reach. It recently partnered with Snowflake to enhance enterprise AI capabilities, further embedding its platforms Foundry, Gotham, Apollo, and AIP into public and private sector operations. This strategic move strengthens its scalability and adoption. Nevertheless, some analysts caution that the stock may be overheated, trading at 277 times forward earnings. If growth expectations falter, Palantir could face downward pressure. Competitors like AMD and ASML are closing in on its market cap and may attract investor attention if Palantir’s valuation proves unsustainable. Ultimately, PLTR offers long-term exposure to the booming AI and big data sectors, but investors should remain vigilant as the market recalibrates.

Elliott Wave Outlook: PLTR Daily Chart Analysis June 02, 2025

Elliott Wave Outlook: PLTR Daily Chart Analysis June 02, 2025

In June, Palantir’s stock plunged to $80.00 and then corrected in a clear three-wave pattern. This decline aligned with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave (III), effectively retesting the previous wave IV price zone. From that level, the stock rallied decisively, breaking above the wave (III) high and confirming the completion of wave (IV). Elliott Wave analysis at the time indicated the formation of a new impulse structure—likely wave (V). Wave I of (V) peaked at $125.26, followed by a wave II pullback to $105.32. This setup suggested that Palantir had entered wave ((3)) of III, with bullish momentum building.

As the impulse continued to unfold, we projected further upside toward the $139.86–$162.75 range, where wave III might conclude. If the price failed to show a downward reaction at those levels, wave III would room to extend even higher. This technical structure pointed to a strong bullish cycle, reinforcing Palantir’s positioning for continued gains in the evolving AI and data analytics landscape. Given the setup, the recommended strategy was to buy dips and ride the momentum.

Elliott Wave Outlook: PLTR Daily Chart Analysis October 26, 2025

Elliott Wave Outlook: PLTR Daily Chart Analysis October 26, 2025

In this latest update, we can see that the market extends in wave (V), showing continued bullish momentum. Wave III pushes up to $190.00 before sharply pulling back to $142.34, marking wave IV. Although the price rallies from that low, it does not break above the wave III high. Therefore, we anticipate more upside to complete wave V of (V). This structure suggests that wave V is likely to extend, and we expect the price to move higher as the impulse unfolds.

Currently, the market is targeting the $201.49–$219.79 zone, where a bearish reaction could signal the completion of wave V. If no reaction occurs, prices may continue climbing to even higher levels. Should a correction begin, it would likely revisit the $142.34 level at minimum, with a possible retracement toward $100 per share. However, this remains speculative. For now, the best approach is to wait for price action to reach the proposed zone and monitor the reaction closely.

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Extreme SMH Zone: Hold Tight or Take Profits?

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The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) trades within the forecasted extreme zone of 309.83 to 353.03, showing signs of technical overheating. Analysts expect an average 12-month price target of 343.93, with bullish projections reaching up to 451.50. Strong demand for semiconductors—driven by AI, electric vehicles, and cloud infrastructure—continues to push momentum. All major moving averages, from the 10-day to the 200-day, point to a “Buy” signal. At the same time, indicators like RSI and STOCH suggest overbought conditions. Traders should watch for signs of consolidation or a pullback before the next leg higher.

From October 2025 into early 2026, SMH’s direction depends on interest rate trends, chip supply dynamics, and earnings from top holdings such as NVIDIA, TSMC, and Broadcom. The ETF holds a “Moderate Buy” rating, backed by 22 buy recommendations and 4 holds. While long-term growth in semiconductors looks solid, short-term risks may surface from global tensions or cyclical shifts. New investors might wait for clearer support levels or a dip before entering. Those already in the trade could protect gains by trimming positions or setting stop-loss levels as SMH moves through this high-risk zone.

Elliott Wave Outlook: SMH Daily Chart May 13th

SMH Daily Chart May 13th

SMH recently completed a complex double correction (w, x, y), confirming the shift from a failed zigzag (a, b, c) to a deeper structural reset. The breach of wave ((A)) by wave ((C)) and the August 2024 low signaled this transition early, with wave w ending at 200.49, wave x peaking at 269.66 through two diagonal formations, and wave y bottoming at 170.11—right within the Fibonacci extension zone of 186.80 to 167.22. From that low, SMH began a clear impulsive move upward, reinforcing the bullish outlook. As the structure unfolded, corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings were expected to support the trend. Therefore, buying the dips was the preferred strategy while momentum was holden.

We analyzed to focus on the 309.83 to 353.03 zone as a likely target for wave (V) to complete. This range marks a critical threshold where bullish exhaustion could trigger a broader market correction. With the impulse in motion and technical patterns aligning, traders should stay alert for signs of topping behavior once SMH approaches this zone. The setup favors continued upside in the near term, but disciplined risk management will be key as the ETF enters historically reactive levels.

Elliott Wave Outlook: SMH Daily Chart September 27th

Elliott Wave Outlook: SMH Daily Chart September 27th

SMH continues to push through a strong impulsive structure. All signs suggest wave V is already in motion. The weekly chart hints at wave III still unfolding, but we are going to assume a conservative mood for now. The structure from the 170.11 low remains solid. Bullish momentum dominates unless proven otherwise. We expect wave ((3)) to peak by late September. A swift correction in wave ((4)) may follow through October. If the pattern holds, November and December could bring a final rally. A broader reset may begin in early 2026.

SMH now trades inside the critical 309.83–353.03 zone. This area often signals exhaustion and potential reversal. Traders must stay alert and act with precision. The wave V structure looks clean and actionable. The strategy remains simple: buy dips after corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings. Momentum still favors the bulls, but risk increases inside this zone. A sharp correction could unfold at any moment. Watch for signs of topping or failed breakouts. Discipline and tactical awareness are essential. Ride the impulse while it lasts but stay ready to pivot.

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SMH Finds Support After Double Correction, Wave (V) in Motion

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The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) gives investors access to 25 major U.S.-listed semiconductor companies. The fund includes NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, QUALCOMM, ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Micron Technology, and AMD.

Analysts view SMH as a strong investment in a sector driving advancements in AI, cloud computing, and high-performance computing. While volatile, experts emphasize long-term growth, supported by rising demand for AI, 5G, and autonomous vehicles. Despite market fluctuations, SMH often outperforms when investor sentiment improves.

Investors closely monitor global supply chains, trade policies, and new chip innovations, which could shape future growth. With these factors influencing the market, SMH remains an attractive option for exposure to the semiconductor industry.

Last SMH Daily Chart January 16th

Earlier this year, on January 16, 2025, we analyzed the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and observed its sideways movement between $230 and $260 in the daily timeframe. As expected, the market rallied from $222.20, but momentum failed to break previous highs or reach the $269.50 level. Consequently, we adjusted our chart and identified Wave I as a leading diagonal that ended at $262.26. Since October 2024, the price traded within a Wave II correction, which we classified as a running flat correction.

At that time, we believed Wave III had already started, with Wave ((1)) of III topping at $257.20 before entering a Wave ((2)) pullback. As long as price action held above $240.62, we expected a bullish move targeting a break above $283.07.

However, while we favored the running flat correction scenario for Wave II, we acknowledged the possibility of an expanded flat correction. If the market had fallen below $240.62, SMH would have likely extended its decline toward the $235.29 – $228.61 range before completing Wave II and resuming its upward trend.  (If you want to learn more about flat corrections, please follow these links: and .)

SMH Daily Chart May 13th

SMH Daily Chart May 13th

In our latest update, we observed that the zigzag correction (a, b, c) failed, leading to a double correction (w, x, y). This aligns with the fundamental concept that corrections move in 3, 7, or 11 swings, forming a simple correction, a double correction, or a triple correction. As analysts, we must assess which of these three scenarios is most likely to occur.

When wave (C) of ((W)) broke below wave (A), it served as an early signal that a double correction might unfold. This was later confirmed when the August 2024 low was breached. From the wave (III) high, the first leg of the double correction formed as a zigzag, ending wave w at 200.49. Following that, another zigzag pattern developed, featuring two diagonals’ structures one leading and one ending which marked the completion of wave x at 269.66. Finally, the double correction in wave y wrapped up at 170.11, completing wave (IV) within the Fibonacci extension zone of 186.80 – 167.22 (100% – 123%).

Current Outlook & Strategy

At present, it is clear that SMH is developing an impulse from the 170.11 low. The primary expectation is for the upward movement to persist, supported by corrections in 3, 7, or 11 swings. Given this setup, the best strategy is to buy the dips, as the bullish trend remains intact.

Looking ahead, we are targeting the 309.83 – 353.03 zone as a potential area for wave (V) to complete. Once SMH reaches this range, a more significant correction in the market could follow.

Be good and Trade Smart!

 

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QQQ Elliott Wave : Forecasting the Rally From Equal Legs Zone

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Hello fellow traders,

In this technical article, we are going to present Elliott Wave charts of QQQ ETF .  As our members know QQQ is trading within the cycle from the 396 low. Recently the ETF  has reached the extreme zone from the April 9th peak and found buyers as expected.   In the following sections, we will explain the Elliott Wave forecast.

QQQ Elliott Wave 1  Hour  Chart 04.21.2025

The current view suggests QQQ is about to complete the cycle from the peak. Correction is reaching the extreme zone at 429.35-420.91 area.  At that zone buyers should re-enter, which could lead to a further rally toward new highs or in a 3 waves bounce at least. We recommend that members avoid selling QQQ and keep favoring the long side.

Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

qqq

QQQ Elliott Wave 1  Hour  Chart 04.10.2025

QQQ found buyers, and made decent reaction from the Equal Legs zone : 429.35-420.91.  Cycle from the peak ended at 428.3 low. As far as the price stays above that low, we can see further strength in the ETF. As a result, any long trades from the marked zone should be in risk-free positions with partial profits taken.

Reminder for members: Our chat rooms in the membership area are available 24 hours a day, providing expert insights on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions about the market, Elliott Wave patterns, or technical analysis. We’re here to help.

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QQQ

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QQQ Elliott Wave : Forecasting the Rally From the Blue Box

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Hello fellow traders,

In this technical article, we are going to present Elliott Wave charts of QQQ ETF .  As our members know QQQ has recently bounce from the Equal Legs area.  The ETF has reached the extreme zone from the 540.6 peak and found buyers as expected.   In the following sections, we will explain the Elliott Wave forecast.

QQQ 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart Analysis: June 4, 2025

The current view suggests QQQ is trading within the cycle from the 540.63 peak that is unfolding as a Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern.  We expect an extension toward the extreme zone at 419.26-373.2 . At that zone buyers should re-enter, which could lead to a further rally in a 3 waves bounce at least. We recommend that members avoid selling QQQ .

Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

QQQ ETF 1-hour Elliott Wave chart showing Zig Zag pattern and extreme zone

QQQ 1-hour chart displaying potential Zig Zag pattern and key support zone

QQQ 1-Hour Elliott Wave Update: June 10, 2025

The ETF made made extension down and reached Equal Legs area as expected. QQQ found buyers, and made decent reaction from the Blue Box zone.  Cycle from the peak ended at 395.86 low. As far as the mentioned pivot holds, we can see further strength in the ETF. As a result, members who took the long trades are enjoying profits in risk-free positions. The 395.86 level remains key for the current bullish outlook to stay valid.

QQQ ETF follow-up chart showing bounce from Blue Box zone

QQQ finds support at Equal Legs area as predicted, begins bullish reaction

90% of traders fail because they don’t understand market patterns. Are you in the top 10%? Test yourself with this advanced Elliott Wave Test

Join Our Elliott Wave Trading Community

Reminder for members: Our chat rooms in the membership area are available 24 hours a day, providing expert insights on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions about the market, Elliott Wave patterns, or technical analysis. We’re here to help.

Why Join Elliott Wave Forecast?

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💻 Ask unlimited questions during trading hours (Monday to Friday). Our Chat Rooms are an excellent place to learn, with continuous support from our market experts!

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Can Micron (MU) Overcome the Market Hurdles for a Strong Rally?

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The performance of Micron Technology Inc. (MU) stock has been a constant topic of interest in financial markets. Despite strong projections and a track record of innovation in the semiconductor industry, the ability of its stock to sustain a significant rally could be challenged by economic and sector-specific factors. In this article, we will explore the challenges and opportunities Micron faces on its path to sustainable recovery, as well as the potential impact of these dynamics on investors.

MU Weekly Chart October 2024 

MU Weekly Chart October 2024 

In the last weekly chart of October 2024, MU made a bearish impulse ending at $84.12 low, and we labeled this as wave ((A)) of II. Then, we were anticipating a corrective wave ((B)). Wave (A) ended at $106.75 high, and we identified the correction wave (B) as completed at $98.94 low. We stated that wave (C) had already started a new rally, and we expected it to reach the $130.03–$149.15 area to culminate wave ((B)) and turn lower into ((C)). This idea was valid as long as the market remained below $157.57 or above $48.43. If the market would break above wave I high, then wave II would have already ended.

MU Weekly Chart March 2025

MU shows potential to recover its stock price as technological advancements and a memory market rebound drive growth later in 2025. However, demand fluctuations, global economic pressures, or unexpected market shifts create uncertainty around this recovery. The outlook highlights growth opportunities, but investors must monitor market volatility, which could undermine the rally’s sustainability.

The price broke below wave ((A)) low, which suggests wave ((B)) may be completed instead of wave (A). However, the ranging movement more likely indicates wave ((B)) is forming an expanding flat correction. We labeled wave (B) at the 83.54 low, and wave (C) is now progressing as an impulse or an ending diagonal structure. The chart illustrates an upward impulse, targeting the 113.95–132.90 area for wave (C) and ((B)). Afterward, the market will likely react lower to continue wave ((C)) of II. While wave II may already be finished, we are conservatively labeling this rally as part of an expanding flat correction. If MU breaks above wave I high, it confirms wave II is complete. Conversely, if the market breaks below wave (B), wave ((B)) is complete, and wave ((C)) begins moving downward.

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