The Elliott Wave outlook for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) suggests that the cycle from the March 31, 2026 low is close to completion as a five-wave impulse. From that low, wave 1 ended at 658.52, followed by a corrective decline in wave 2 that reached 644.16. The ETF then advanced in wave 3, topping at 712.39, before retracing in wave 4, which concluded at 702.28. This sequence is clearly shown in the one-hour chart.
At present, the ETF is extending higher in wave 5, the final leg of the cycle. The internal subdivision of wave 5 is unfolding as another impulse of lesser degree. From the end of wave 4, wave ((i)) finished at 716.48, while the pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 707.84. The ETF then advanced into wave ((iii)), which remains in progress. A few more highs are expected before waves ((iii)), ((iv)), and ((v)) conclude. This will complete wave 5 and finalize the broader cycle from the March 2026 low.
After this impulse ends, the ETF should enter a larger degree correction against the cycle before resuming its upward trend. In the near term, as long as price action stays above 673.98, the ETF retains scope to extend modestly higher to complete the cycle.
