Quantum Archives - Elliott Wave Forecast

QuantumScape (QS) Bottoms Out: Wave II Ends, Bullish Cycle Begins

July 20, 2025 By EWFLuis

QuantumScape (NYSE: QS) makes solid-state lithium-metal batteries to improve electric vehicles. Founded in 2010, the company works with Volkswagen to grow its production. It uses lithium metal instead of graphite to charge faster and store more energy. Its ceramic separator helps lithium plate directly, making batteries safer and stronger. QuantumScape owns over 600 patents and has enough funding to last through 2028. The company plans to start commercial production by 2026 and lead battery innovation in the future.

QuantumScape holds around $860 million in cash and reports no debt, ensuring funding through 2028. It invests heavily in R&D and manufacturing. Despite quarterly losses near $114 million, it maintains financial discipline. Investors remain optimistic, especially after launching its Cobra separator line. The company’s market cap exceeds $5.1 billion, reflecting strong belief in its future. As it moves toward commercial production by 2026, QuantumScape balances innovation with strategic financial planning.

QS Weekly Technical Analysis: March 2025 Outlook

As we said on March, the price action of QS shares broke a significant support level, indicating the continuation of a downward trend. Consequently, the bearish movement represented the final phase of QuantumScape’s decline. This breakdown set the stage for a new bullish trend to emerge. It also reflected rising investor uncertainty, which underscored the importance of monitoring key catalysts and fundamental shifts. These had the potential to ignite the anticipated upward momentum.

QS Weekly Technical Analysis: July 2025 Outlook

QuantumScape (QS) has completed a major pullback, marking the end of Wave II at the 3.40 low. After breaking above 9.52 and 13.86, the price signals the bearish cycle likely ended and an upward move has begun. Currently, the market appears to be forming an impulsive structure, labeled as Wave (1). It’s too early to confirm where Wave (1) will end, so stay alert and watch for the ideal chart pattern. After that, we expect a correction in 3, 7, or 11 swings to complete Wave (2) before another upward leg. This outlook remains valid as long as price stays above the 3.40 low.

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QuantumScape’s (QS) Shares: Waiting for the Spark to Ignite the Rally

March 4, 2025 By EWFLuis

QuantumScape Corporation (QS) develops and commercializes solid-state lithium-metal batteries. These batteries power electric vehicles and other applications, delivering higher energy density and faster charging compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries.

QS Weekly Technical Analysis: March 2025 Outlook

QS weekly chart showing critical support break and potential final bearish phase before reversal

The price action of QS shares has broken a significant support level, indicating the continuation of a downward trend. Consequently, this bearish movement may represent the final phase of the current decline. Furthermore, this development sets the stage for the eventual emergence of a new bullish trend in the near future. Additionally, it reflects growing investor uncertainty, which, in turn, underscores the need to closely monitor upcoming catalysts or fundamental changes that could potentially ignite the anticipated upward momentum. Ultimately, this pivotal moment serves as a reminder of the dynamic and evolving nature of market trends.

Elliott Wave Structure Analysis for QS Stock

The stock completed a cycle as wave I at a high of 132.73. Since then, everything has been trending downward. The structure has developed a series of double corrections, progressively extending lower. The main double correction is composed of ((W)), ((X)), and ((Y)). Wave ((W)) ended at 19.12, and wave ((X)) concluded at 43.08. From there, the market has been operating in wave ((Y)), extending double corrections at a lesser degree.

The next three downward swings ended at 5.11 as wave (W), while wave (X) concluded at 13.86. The subsequent double correction completed wave W at 4.92 and wave X at 9.52, continuing to the downside. In the next group wave ((w)) ended at 4.65 and wave ((x)) at 6.94. From this point, we believe it is possible that we are in the final phase of these double corrections. The market has broken out of the range taking 4.65 low. We estimate a value of around $2 to complete the bearish cycle. This would finalize the structures of ((y)), Y, (Y), and ((Y)), along with wave II. This value is derived from the 100% Fibonacci extension calculated from the levels of waves ((w)) and ((x)). Therefore, for long-term investments in this company, one could consider looking for buying opportunities as the price approaches $2 per share. Trade Smart!

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Rigetti Computing RGTI Ended a Cycle Looking for Support

January 9, 2025 By EWFLuis

In the last two days, RGTI has had a strong fall, losing more than 50% of its value. The stock ended a cycle and began a correction. Now we are going to see what could happen to the Quantum technology company, from where it can rebound and the pivots that will tell us if the market will return to November 2024 values.

RGTI 30-Minute Chart Analysis: December 26, 2024

RGTI 30-minute chart showing wave structure before recent decline

This is the last chart from December 26th where we hit target and wave (5) looked like was going to extend higher. We can see how wave 1 ended at 12.79 high and the market did a small pullback as wave 2 to 10.20 low. The wave 3 started hitting our target area of 14.37 – 16.89 calling for more upside. Therefore, we expected that the market should continue moving sideway to higher until it ends wave 3. Then, wave 4 correction should retest around the low of wave ((iv)) and finally, a last push higher should end wave 5 of (5) before seeing a retracement in 3, 7 or 11 swings correction.

RGTI 60-Minute Chart Update: January 8, 2025

RGTI 60-minute chart showing completed ending diagonal pattern

This is the lastest chart of RGTI. We can see how wave 3 ended at 19.35 high and pullback as wave 4 at 14.40 low. The stock continued higher developing wave 5 as an ending diagonal structure. After 5 swings the structure completed at 21.42 high. Also ended wave (5) in higher degree and possible wave ((3)) in higher degree.

In a post of Jan 2nd by @ElliottForecast, we suggested the area where we should see a reaction lower. Here is the post: $RGTI has rallied higher and it should continue to 20.50 – 22.33 area. If we see a reaction lower from this zone, a cycle could have ended and we will expect 3, 7 or 11 swings correction before resuming to the upside. If there is not reaction, it should continue extending higher.”

Once an ending diagonal is completed, it is a big warning because a strong pullback is possible. We can see the stock has broken down losing more than 50% of its value. Looks like is building a zig zag correction at the moment, but it is too early to tell certainly. If this move is a wave ((4)), we have a huge support. We consider a support area of 8.37 – 5.79. We should see a bounce in this area to continue the rally and break above 21.42 high. However, if the stock closed a day market below this area, it is dangerous because it could return to levels of November 2024. Let see what the structures give us next days. Trade safe!

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Rigetti Computing RGTI Hit Another Target. Possible Extension Ahead.

December 27, 2024 By EWFLuis

RGTI has risen rapidly in value in recent days attracting the attention of investors. Here we have the 15-minute chart. Applying the Elliott Waves principle, the stock should find support in 5.89 – 7.07 area to complete a wave 4. This would generate a new rally on wave 5 that could reach around 8.94 – 10.25 or extend higher.

RGTI 15 Min Chart 12.11.2024

In any case, as long as the market respects the 5.89 – 7.07 area, RGTI must continue with the upward movement and break above wave 3 to reach at least 8.94 – 10.25. If the market closes below 5.89, it would open the possibility that the value of the stock will drop to 4.00 before looking for another move higher.

RGTI 5 Min Chart 12.11.2024 (Market Closed)

RGTI found support at 5.78 low and rallied. From here, we are looking to build an impulse structure as wave 5. Wave ((i)) could be completed already and while the pullback as wave ((ii)) is above 5.78 low, RGTI should continue higher. The target for this wave 5 comes in 9.11 -10.14 if there is not more extension in the rally.

RGTI 30 Min Chart 12.20.2024

We can see in the chart how was the formation process of the impulse as wave 5. Wave ((ii)) did an expanded flat correction that was very deep, almost breaking the invalidation price. In the rally, we see 5 waves reaching the expected zone of 9.11 – 10.14 completing wave ((iii)). This should have given us a clue that the market still needed one more high to finish the wave 5 impulse. And so it was! After the correction of wave ((iv)), Rigetti built an extended wave ((v)) to finish wave 5 at 12.75 high. The truth is that I would not have considered an extended wave ((v)), I would have considered a value of 11.05 to complete wave ((v)).

The rally also completed wave (3) and the market reacted downwards returning to the support zone of 5.78 – 7.07 finishing wave (4). As long as the market does not close below this area, RGTI should continue to rise in the short term. With a close below this area, we must reanalyze the market structure. For now, we should focus on looking for more bullish movement that reaches the 14.34 – 16.85 area, if there are no further extensions, to finish wave (5).

RGTI 30 Min Chart 12.26.2024

Today we hit a new target after RGTI rallied around 34% and wave (5) looks like is going to extend higher. We can see how wave 1 ended at 12.79 high and the market did a small pullback as wave 2 to 10.20 low. The wave 3 started hitting our target area of 14.37 – 16.89 and it is possible that it is not completed. Therefore, the market should continue moving sideway to higher until it ends wave 3. Then wave 4 correction should retest around the low of wave ((iv)). Currently, we do not know where wave ((iv)) is going to end, keep an eye on that price.

Finally, a last push higher should end wave 5 of (5) before seeing a retracement in 3, 7 or 11 swings correction. The invalidation level is at 10.20 low. If the price breaks at any moment this level, the cycle should be ended and RGTI could return to the support zone.

RGTI 30 Min Chart 12.26.2024

This option is the most conservative view. As you can see, the structure would be currently in wave 5 and could start to retrace at any moment. If this count plays out, we could return to the support 5.78 – 7.07 zone before continuing with further bullish movement.

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