Dow Jones Archives - Elliott Wave Forecast

Volatility Before Opportunity: AT&T (T) Correction Sets Up Rally

November 18, 2025 By EWFLuis

Analysts still maintain a Moderate Buy consensus with an average price target of about $30.6, implying nearly 20% upside from current levels. However, forecasts suggest short‑term weakness: AT&T (T) could dip toward $23.4 by the end of November and $22.1 in December, reflecting a potential 10% decline. This near‑term pressure stems from market fatigue and broader telecom competition, yet the company’s fundamentals remain intact. AT&T has reiterated its 2025 guidance of adjusted EPS between $1.97 and $2.07 and free cash flow above $16 billion, supported by fiber expansion and debt reduction plans.

Looking forward, AT&T’s strategy of scaling fiber coverage and leveraging wireless spectrum should gradually strengthen its position. Transitioning away from legacy assets and focusing on convergence is expected to improve EBITDA growth toward 5% by 2027–2028. Moreover, management’s commitment to reducing leverage to 2.5x EBITDA by mid‑2025 enhances balance sheet resilience. Therefore, while the next few months may bring volatility and possible downside, disciplined investors could benefit from dividends and long‑term appreciation as AT&T executes its multi‑year growth plan. The key will be navigating short‑term corrections while staying aligned with the broader structural uptrend.

Elliott Wave Outlook: AT&T (T) Weekly Chart June 2025

In June, the stock price kept rising as expected, signaling an extension in wave ((3)). We identified the 29.03 high as the likely end of wave ((3)), while support for wave ((4)) appeared at the 25.10 low. From there, the market needed to break decisively above 29.03 in order to propel wave ((5)) toward the 30.02–31.55 target zone. A bearish reaction inside that zone would confirm the completion of impulse wave I. Nevertheless, we acknowledged that upward extensions could still unfold beyond that range.

At the same time, we prepared for the possibility that the market might fail to break above 29.03. In that case, wave ((4)) would still be developing, opening the door for a decline toward 24.66–23.72 before completing wave ((4)). Once that correction finished, the bullish move in wave ((5)) would resume. Importantly, a clean break above 29.03 would invalidate this alternative and reinforce the direct path higher. (If you want to learn more about Elliott Wave Principle, please follow these links: and .)

Elliott Wave Outlook: AT&T (T) Weekly Chart Noviembre 2025

On September 15, T completed the cycle that began in 2023, reaching 29.79 per share. The price missed the ideal target zone by just a few cents. Wave ((5)) formed an ending diagonal, which finalized impulse wave I and triggered a reversal. From that peak, the market declined into the expected 24 area. However, this drop represents only wave ((A)) of corrective wave II.

Now, we anticipate a rebound in wave ((B)). This recovery should remain capped below 29.79. Afterward, the market is expected to fall again in wave ((C)) of II. The ideal completion zone for this correction lies between 22.00 and 19.70. Within that range, we could look for new buying opportunities aimed at breaking above the impulse wave I high of 29.79.

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Ford (F) Moment of Truth: Can It Defend Its Rally or Fade Under Pressure?

November 10, 2025 By EWFLuis

Ford Motor Company (F) has recently demonstrated strong operational momentum, beating Q3 earnings expectations with $0.45 EPS versus the anticipated $0.35. This performance stemmed from robust demand in its truck and hybrid segments, which helped offset ongoing losses in its electric vehicle division. Moreover, Ford’s revenue surged to $50.5 billion, surpassing analyst forecasts. However, despite this upside surprise, management revised its full-year EBIT guidance downward due to a fire at a key Novelis supplier plant, which is expected to cost the company up to $2 billion in lost earnings.

Nevertheless, Ford continues to adapt strategically. The company is shifting EV production to Europe to reduce costs and improve margins, while also benefiting from relaxed U.S. emissions regulations that could lower compliance costs. At the same time, analysts remain cautious. Although the stock trades near its 52-week high, the average price target sits below current levels, signaling limited upside. As a result, investors should weigh Ford’s attractive 6.3% dividend yield and operational resilience against macroeconomic headwinds and execution risks.

Elliott Wave Outlook: Ford (F) Weekly Chart May 2025

Last time we reviewed F ’s wave count in May, we identified it as being in wave (Y). Since then, we’ve been anticipating a rebound resembling wave B before continuing downward into wave C, which would complete the correction. This scenario remains valid as long as the price stays above 4.02; or alternatively, as long as the market holds below the wave (X) high.

Elliott Wave Outlook: Ford (F) Weekly Chart Nov 2025

The current wave has climbed significantly, forming a double correction and still showing potential to break above 13.97. As momentum builds, sellers defend the 14.88 high, which acts as a critical price. For the bearish scenario to remain intact, price must stay below this level and continue toward the 7.79–6.05 zone. However, if the market breaks above 14.88, it would suggest that wave II already ended at the 8.36 low, shifting the structure toward a bullish bias.

Meanwhile, buyers currently hold ground in the 11.86–10.52 area, which serves as a key zone. As long as price remains above this range, the market can attempt to push higher. Nevertheless, if price breaks below this, the probability of revisiting and potentially breaking the 8.36 low increases. This zone becomes the battleground where bulls must defend to sustain upward momentum.

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KO Alert: Is an Ending Diagonal About to Disrupt the Rally?

September 4, 2025 By EWFLuis

Coca-Cola (KO) shows resilience in a shifting market. In Q2 2025, it posted 5% organic revenue growth and 58% EPS jump. Despite currency headwinds, KO improved operating margin to 34.1%, driven by pricing power, cost control, and strategic campaigns like “Share a Coke.”

Although unit case volume dipped slightly due to weather and consumer pressure, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar and core brands gained momentum. Analysts remain optimistic, highlighting KO’s brand loyalty, strong dividend, and flexible pricing as key strengths in uncertain conditions.

Looking ahead, Coca-Cola plans to launch a cane sugar-based product in the U.S. this fall. At the same time, it reevaluates Costa Coffee’s future after underwhelming performance since 2018. Financially, KO holds solid fundamentals with a P/E ratio of 24.46 and a $297B market cap.

Despite a temporary dip in free cash flow from a $6.1B Fairlife payment, KO maintains strong long-term guidance. It projects 8% EPS growth for the year. Banks and analysts share a bullish outlook. MarketBeat reports a consensus “Buy” rating and a $77.21 price target—an 11.89% upside.

Technical analysts highlight a breakout zone between $67.74 and $69.14. They cite KO’s pricing power and dividend yield as key entry signals. As September brings volatility, KO’s defensive profile and global brand appeal attract institutional investors seeking stability.

Elliott Wave Outlook Ending Diagonal: KO Monthly Chart September 2025

On KO’s monthly chart, we’ve identified a leading diagonal from the all-time low to April 2025 high as wave ((I)). Wave (V) of ((I)) appears to form an ending diagonal, confirmed through technical analysis. This Elliott Wave pattern often signals exhaustion, suggesting the market may be losing bullish momentum. If the structure proves correct, long-term investors should prepare for a possible correction. In the worst-case scenario, price could drop toward the $40.00 zone. This setup deserves close attention, especially as structural patterns often precede major shifts.

Elliott Wave Outlook Nest: KO Monthly Chart September 2025

Another way to view the chart is as a nest, multiple 1-2 waves forming over time. Currently, we may be in wave I-II. Unlike the first scenario, this one implies a shallower correction. Therefore, wave II could drop only to the 60–50 zone before the rally resumes. If the ending diagonal holds, this setup is ideal. KO has shown strong bullish behavior with minor pullbacks, unless disrupted by major events like a recession or the 2020 pandemic. Additionally, we must consider a possible extension in the ending diagonal. This lies between 76.56 – 81.49 area. If KO reaches this zone without correcting and maintains the diagonal structure, the pullback may occur there. However, if price breaks above 81.49, the diagonal will fail, and KO would continue higher.

Elliott Wave Outlook Impulse: KO Monthly Chart September 2025

To conclude, this is the core idea that supports KO’s bullish outlook assuming no major correction unfolds. The goal is to generate new highs and controlled pullbacks, gradually building a long-term impulse that completes Coca-Cola’s cycle from its inception.

If you’re eager to dive deeper into Elliott Wave Theory and learn how its principles apply to market forecasting, you might find these resources helpful: and .

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Elliott Wave Signals Caution for TRV: Is a Correction Looming?

August 17, 2025 By EWFLuis

The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) stands strong in the insurance sector. Analysts value its stable earnings, solid dividend, and consistent buybacks. Out of 17 expert ratings, 8 recommend buying, while 7 suggest holding. Only 2 advise selling. The average price target is $294.47, implying an 11% upside from the current $264.87. BMO and KBW raised their targets to $316, citing strong underwriting and pricing power.

However, not all experts agree. Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo maintain hold ratings due to valuation concerns and catastrophe risks. Barclays recently downgraded TRV, reflecting caution amid market volatility. Despite mixed views, TRV remains a defensive favorite. Its resilience and shareholder-friendly strategy continue to attract long-term investors.

Elliott Wave Outlook: TRV Weekly Chart April 2025

In the latest update, we clearly identified the structure of wave V. Wave ((1)) peaked at 266.74. Then, wave ((2)) corrected sharply to 230.43 but remained above wave IV. After that, TRV moved higher, targeting the 279.63–295.10 zone. This area marks the likely end of wave V of (I) and signals the possible start of wave (II).

However, if the market showed no strong pullback at those levels, wave V might have extended into wave ((3)). TRV would need to push above 300 to confirm a continuation of the bullish momentum.

Elliott Wave Outlook: TRV Weekly Chart August 2025

The chart for TRV illustrates a mature Elliott Wave impulse structure on the weekly timeframe, suggesting that the stock may be nearing the end of a bullish cycle. The labeling shows a possible ending diagonal structure ((1)) through ((5)), followed by a potential corrective abc pattern. The projected resistance zone lies between 279.63 and 295.09, based on Fibonacci tool, if there are not more extension higher, we should see a strong reaction lower from this area. The annotation emphasizes trading only in the direction of the green/red “Right Side” tags, reinforcing a disciplined, trend following strategy. Overall, the chart signals caution: while upside targets remain viable, a corrective pullback (waves a, b, c) may soon unfold, offering potential re-entry opportunities for traders aligned with the broader wave structure.

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McDonald’s (MCD): Final Push Before Diagonal Ends

July 23, 2025 By EWFLuis

McDonald’s (MCD) stock is holding steady near $298, showing resilience despite mixed consumer trends and pricing pressures. Financially, the company remains strong with a market cap above $213 billion, a dividend yield of 2.37%, and nearly 50 consecutive years of dividend increases. Its Q2 earnings are expected on July 28, with analysts projecting modest profit growth.

Recently, Goldman Sachs upgraded MCD to “Buy,” citing its push to regain market share through product innovation and digital strategy. New menu items like the return of snack wraps and the “daily double” burger are designed to attract value-focused customers. McDonald’s is also expanding its beverage lineup, using insights from its CosMc’s concept to boost traffic and check size.

Leadership changes are underway too—Annemarie Swijtink will become CEO of McDonald’s Canada this September, signaling a fresh strategic direction in key markets. Overall, MCD is navigating a tough consumer environment with smart financial planning, brand strength, and targeted innovation. Want help turning this into a visual or social post? I’ve got ideas.

McDonald’s MCD Weekly Chart March 2025

Back in March, McDonald’s (MCD) completed its correction and reached the projected zone between $281 – $271 area. It touched a low of $276.80 and quickly moved higher, matching our bullish forecast. Since then, the price climbed in a new upward phase, supported by strong momentum. As long as it stays above the previous low, the bullish setup remains valid. If the price dips below that level, it may signal that the correction isn’t over. However, that wouldn’t mean a bearish trend—just a delayed continuation. Overall, the market’s structure still points to more upside ahead.

McDonald’s MCD Weekly Chart July 2025

Currently, wave (2) has taken significantly more time than expected. Although we initially looked for a strong bullish continuation, we’ve now decided to relabel the structure as a leading diagonal. This adjustment stems from the likelihood that the Dow Jones is nearing to end of an impulsive move that began in April. If true, McDonald’s (MCD) stock should rally and soon experience a pullback. Accordingly, the diagonal now includes wave (1) at 317.84 high, correction wave (2) at 276.63 low, next leg at 326.27 high, and wave (4) at 283.47 low. To complete the pattern, wave (5) must rise above wave (3) but remain below 333.27.

If wave (5) exceeds 333.27, the diagonal structure becomes invalid. This is because wave (3) would then be the shortest, violating Elliott Wave rules. In that case, we must reassess whether MCD is forming a flat correction as wave ((2)), or simply continuing its bullish momentum. This scenario would require a fresh analysis of the broader structure and its implications for future price action. For now, we remain focused on completing the diagonal and preparing for a potential retracement.

If you’d like to deepen your understanding of Elliott Wave Theory, explore these resources: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory

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Bullish Bounce: YM_F Dow Futures Rebound from Blue Box Zone

July 22, 2025 By Hassan Sheikh

In this blog post, we’ll dive into the recent performance of the YM_F Dow futures, focusing on its 1-Hour Elliott Wave Charts. Since the April 7, 2025, low, the rally has unfolded as an impulse structure. Showing a sequence of higher highs that suggests further upside potential.

Given this momentum, our advice to members has been to avoid selling the index. Instead buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swings within the blue box areas. Below, we’ll break down the structure and provide insights into our forecast.

YM_F Dow futures 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 7.15.2025

As of our July 15, 2025, NY Midday update, the YM_F Dow futures index had completed the cycle from 6.19.2025 low ended in wave ((iii)) at $45177 high. The subsequent decline unfolded as wave ((iv)), which corrected the preceding cycle. This pullback followed a zigzag structure, with wave (a) ending at $44422 and wave (b) bounce to $45043. Wave (c) then extended to the blue box area $44291- $43819, a zone anticipated for buyer interest, potentially triggering a 3-wave bounce or the next significant leg higher.

YM_F Dow futures Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 7.22.2025

Our latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart update from July 22, 2025, shows the index reacting higher after completing its correction within the blue box area. This favorable move enabled members to secure risk-free positions shortly after entering long at the blue box zone. However, a decisive break above the $45177 high is crucial to confirm further upside potential and prevent a deeper pullback.

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