USD/JPY Archives - Page 2 of 4 - Elliott Wave Forecast

USDJPY : Calling the April 2020 Move Lower

May 3, 2020 By EWF Aidan

USDJPY Technical Analysis

On April 8/2020 I posted on social media (Stocktwits/Twitter) @AidanFX “USDJPY Break below 108.60 can push the pair lower towards 108 area“

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart April 9.2020 : The chart below was also posted on social media (StockTwits/Twitter) @AidanFX April 9/2020 showing that a bearish reciprocal AB=CD pattern (dark blue) has formed and the pair could make a move lower. I posted price broke below the SELL break level (green) and informed traders to watch for selling opportunities and to watch for a move lower towards the target levels. Indicators also needed to break below the trend lines (black) for more confirmation of downside momentum.

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart April 14.2020 : The pair continues lower hitting target 3 (+150 pips) and indicators broke below the trend lines (black) confirming downside momentum.

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart April 24.2020 : On April 24/2020 I posted the 2nd SELL setup (blue) calling for another extension lower. Price was respecting the moving average (purple) and a visible rectangle breakout pattern (dark blue) was forming. I informed traders to add sells on the break below the pattern breakout level.

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart April 28.2020 : The pair breaks lower and hits the 1st entry (green) target 4 for +200 pips and hits the 2nd entry (blue) target 1 for +70 pips. New stop loss (pink) for both entries was set at the top of the dark blue rectangle pattern.

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart May 1.2020 : At the end of April and the start of May the pair still has potential to make another round lower. The pair has retested a new support/resistance zone (light blue box) and was followed with a reaction lower. As long as price does not hit the protected stop loss (pink) we can expect another round lower and hit the target 5 (green) and target 2 (blue). If you followed me on Twitter/Stocktwits you too could have caught the USDJPY breakout move lower.

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan

*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***

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USDJPY : Bullish Momentum Breakout Pattern

March 29, 2020 By EWF Aidan

USDJPY Technical Analysis

In our members only area, we posted the USDJPY 1 Hour Chart (London Update) advising our members/clients that the pair would continue rallying higher and for traders to continue looking for possible buying opportunities.

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart March 18/2020 (Members Only Area)

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart March 19/2020: Once price broke above the wave A (red) of the above Elliott Wave chart a bullish momentum breakout pattern triggered BUYS as shown in the charts below. A bullish momentum breakout pattern requires 3 steps to trigger a BUY. First, a high on price chart forms simultaneously with a high above the 80 level on the Stochastic indicator. Second, a pullback in price that respects the 50 moving average together with a move lower below the 80 level on the Stochastic indicator. And third, BUY on the move above the first step high breakout level only if price respected the 50 moving average and watch for Stochastic indicator to register back above the 80 level to confirm momentum. USDJPY moved higher over 300 pips and hit the 1:3 RR Target for +340 pips from the momentum breakout level.

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USDJPY Elliott Wave View: More Upside Expected

March 19, 2020 By Hassan Sheikh

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDJPY suggests that the rally from March 09, 2020 low is showing a higher high sequence favoring a move towards $112.45-$114.17 target area the upside. The internals of that rally is unfolding as Elliott wave double three structure. While the initial rally to $105.92 high ended wave (W) in blue. Down from there, the 3 wave pullback ended wave (X) at 103.05 low. Up from there, the pair made another rally higher in 3 swings and completed wave (Y) at $108.50 high. Thus completed the wave ((W)) in black.

Below from there, the pair made a 3 wave pullback in wave ((X)). The internals of that pullback unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave (A) ended at $105.69 low. Wave (B) ended at $107.57 and wave (C) ended at $105.09 low. Above from there, the pair went on to make a new high above the previous peak and confirmed the ((Y)) leg higher. Near-term, while dips remain above $105.09 low expect pair to extend higher in wave (W) towards $109.51-$111.24 area next before a pullback in wave (X) could take place. We don’t like selling it. As far as the pivot from $105.09 low stays intact expect pair to extend higher.

USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

USDJPY Elliott Wave Video

Elliott Wave View: USDJPY Remains Supported

November 14, 2019 By EWFHendra

Elliott Wave View on USDJPY suggests the rally from October 3 low is unfolding as a leading diagonal. A leading diagonal is one form of a 5 waves move with wave 1 and 4 overlapping and the structure looks like a wedge. Up from October 3 low, wave ((i)) ended at 108.93 (not shown on chart), and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 107.87. Pair then resumed higher in wave ((iii)) and ended at 109.49. Wave ((iv)) pullback remains in progress and expected to end at 108.26 – 108.65 area.

Pair should then resume higher in wave ((v)) and it should also end wave 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, expect pair to pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from October 3 low before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at 107.87 low stays intact in the first degree, expect pair to find support soon and resume higher. The alternative scenario suggest the rally from August 27 low ended at 109.49 as a 5 waves diagonal. In this scenario, pair should then pullback to correct the entire rally from August 27 low in larger 3 waves before the rally resumes.

USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Video

USDJPY : Watch Reversal Zone for Another Move Higher

November 2, 2019 By EWF Aidan

USDJPY Technical Analysis November 2/2019

USDJPY remains bullish as long as the August 26/2019 low remains untouched. In this analysis of the USDJPY pair, market patterns will be used to determine where price can possibly reverse and bounce higher from. In the chart below, there are 3 possible bullish patterns that can trigger BUYS near the same area. The blue bullish pattern triggers BUYS at the BC 0.50% Fib. retracement level and 2 bullish patterns (pink) triggers BUYS at either the XA 0.886% or XA 0.786% Fib. retracement level. We have yet to see which of the 2 pink bullish patterns will form. At the moment price is bouncing from the pink XA 0.50% Fib. retracement level so it seems the XA 0.886% BUY trigger can be the one to watch for. Traders still need to be patient and wait to see where the pink point C terminates and also watch if price bounces off the XA 0.618% Fib. level where then the XA 0.786% level can also also trigger BUYS. For now, the main bullish pattern to watch will be the blue XA 0.50% Fib. level where if either any of the 2 pink bullish patterns form they will both trigger BUYS near the blue XA 0.50% Fib. level. Traders should watch these three BUY levels in the reversal zone (blue box) for a possible reaction bounce higher because there has been previous support/resistance price action in the past. Blue bullish pattern invalidates if price breaks below the point B low and the pink bullish pattern invalidates if price moves below the point X low. Traders will need to wait and watch how price reacts at the possible reversal/support zone (blue box) and see if the market reacts higher to any of these bullish patterns. If looking to trade USDJPY stops should be placed at the point B low of the blue bullish pattern or for tighter stops at the point X low of the pink bullish patterns and looking for a bounce/rally higher to extend above the October 30/2019 highs. Only time will tell what USDJPY will do but at least now you are aware of the possible area where the pair can bounce higher from.

USDJPY 4 Hour Chart 11.2.2019

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$USDJPY Forecasting The Decline After Running Flat Pattern

August 27, 2019 By EWF Vlada

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of USDJPY published in members area of the website. As our members know, USDJPY has incomplete bearish sequences in the cycle from the 04/24 peak. That makes the pair bearish against the 109.33 high. Consequently, we advised members to avoid buying the pair and keep favoring the short side.

Recently the pair made Running Flat against the mentioned peak. Before we take a look at the real market example of Running Flat, let’s explain the pattern in a few words.

Elliott Wave Running Flat Pattern

Elliott Wave Expanded Flat is a 3 wave corrective pattern which can be seen in the market nowadays. Inner subdivision is labeled as A,B,C , with inner 3,3,5 structure. Waves A and B have forms of corrective structures like zigzag, flat, double three or triple three. Third wave C is always 5 waves structure, either motive impulse or ending diagonal pattern. It’s important to notice that in Running Flat Pattern wave B completes below the start point of wave A, and wave C ends below the ending point of wave A. These kind of movements make the Running Flats. Running FLATS Patterns are also tricky to trade.

At the graphic below, we can see what Running Flat structure looks like.

Now let’s see what Elliott Wave Running Flat looks like in real market example.

USDJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 8.13.2019

At the chart below we can see classic example of Elliott Wave Flat Pattern in forming. We got 3 waves up in wave (a) blue and then another 3 waves down in (b) which broke starting point of wave (a). Currently we are getting strong rally with impulsive structure in (c) leg up. At this stage we don’t know yet is the pattern going to end up as Expanded or Running Flat, as the price can easily broke ending point of wave (a).

You can learn more about Elliott Wave FLAT Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

USDJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 8.14.2019

Current view suggests recovery against the 109.29 peak is completed at 106.98 high as wave ((b)) black. As wave (c) of Flat ended below ending point of wave (a), wave ((b)) is counted completed as Running Flat structure. As far as the price stays below that level we expect further weakness in the pair. Now we need to see break below (b) blue low to confirm next leg down is in progress.

USDJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 8.23.2019

Currently USDJPY is doing short term recovery against the 106.98 peak, which also can be unfolding as Flat Structure. We got 3 waves up in a red, then 3 waves down in b red, currently still forming c red as 5 waves structure. If c red completes below a red high that would be another running flat. Anyway, as far as the price stays below 106.98 peak we expect further weakness in the pair.

USDJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 8.27.2019

Last short term high at 107 held nicely and we got decline as expected. Short term wave ((ii)) recovery also ended as running flat as wave (c) completed below ending point of wave (a). Now as far as the price stays below wave (ii) blue high, and more importantly 107.01 pivot holds, we can be doing next leg down within incomplete cycle. Otherwise break above (ii) blue peak can make 107.012 more vulnerable.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Not every chart is Trading Signal. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

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