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Elliott Wave View: OIL Can Extend Lower In Correction

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Short term Elliott wave view in OIL ( $CL_F) suggests that the main cycle from April 2020 low remain bullish to the upside favoring more upside. Near-term, the rally from 01 November 2020 low unfolded as an impulse sequence where wave 3 of (1) ended at $47.88 high. While wave 4 ended at $45.88 low, wave 5 ended at $49.42 high. Thus completed wave (1) at $49.42 high. Down from there, the correction in wave (2) pullback remains in progress & expected to find buyers in a 3 or 7 swing structure.

Below from $49.42 high, the pullback seems to be unfolding as an Elliott wave zigzag structure where wave A ended at $46.25 low. While in wave B bounce OIL is doing a shorter-term flat correction where lesser degree wave ((a)) ended at $48.15 high, wave ((b)) ended at $46.16 low, and wave ((c)) remain in progress in a lesser degree 5 wave sequence. While in wave ((c)) wave (i) ended at $47.25 high. Wave (ii) ended at $46.94 low, wave (iii) ended at $48.50 high, wave (iv) ended at $47.91 low. Wave (v) is now looking for another push higher approximately towards $48.99- $49.25 area to retest the peak before ending the flat correction & starting the wave C lower while the pivot from $49.42 high stays intact. We don’t recommend selling it as the main trend remains bullish to the upside.

OIL 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Elliott Wave View: OIL Can Extend Lower In Correction

OIL Elliott Wave Video

Elliott Wave View: Oil (CL) Impulsive Rally In Progress

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Rally in Oil (CL) from Nov 2 low is unfolding as 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. In the 60 minutes chart below, we can see wave 3 of this impulse ended at 47.74. Wave 4 pullback then ended at 45.69. Internal subdivision of wave 4 unfolded as a zigzag where wave ((a)) ended at 46.34, wave ((b)) ended at 47.44, and wave ((c)) ended at 45.69.

Wave 5 is now in progress and should subdivide in another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave 4 low at 45.69, wave (i) ended at 47.07, and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 46.54. Oil then resumes higher again in wave (iii) towards 47.73, and dips in wave (iv) ended at 47.28. Final leg higher in wave (v) ended at 47.91 and this should complete wave ((i)) in higher degree. Oil then pullback in wave ((ii)) which already ended at 47.17. Near term, while pullback stays above 47.17, and more importantly above 44.96, expect Oil to extend higher. As far as pivot at 44.96 low remains intact, expect buyers to appear in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside. Potential target higher is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension of ((i))-((ii)) which comes at 49.4 – 49.9.

Oil (CL) 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

Oil Elliott Wave Chart

CL Elliott Wave Video

Post-Pandemic Future Demand Recovery Supports Oil

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The news that Covid-19 vaccines will soon be available to fight the pandemic has boosted the global oil markets. Demand has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projects 2020 oil demand to be 9.8 million bpd (barrels per day) lower than 2019. In 2020, OPEC cut production by nearly 10 million bpd while non-OPEC oil supply contracts by 2.5 million bpd. This cut has helped stabilize the commodity’s price after the brief dip to negative price in futures contract earlier this year.

Looking at the coming year, global oil demand can start to recover in 2021 once the pandemic ends. In OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market report, it projects demand to recover by 6.2 million bpd in 2021. Hence there’s market expectation that OPEC members and Russia would start to raise the production capacity again. In last week’s OPEC meeting, OPEC+ producers agreed to raise output by 500,000 barrels per day. This increase was smaller than expected as there was a concern they could raise by 2 million bpd. The cautious output increase is likely justified as it may take time to vaccinate a large portion of the population. Demand therefore may not bounce substantially until the second half of next year.

Oil (CL) Daily Elliott Wave Chart

Oil Elliott Wave chart

Oil Daily Elliott Wave chart above shows a higher high bullish sequence from April 22 low. The rally can either unfold as a 5 waves impulse or at least an ABC zigzag. Either way, the ideal minimum target for the third swing is a 100% extension to the first swing. That target area comes at 52.35 – 56.68. Dips therefore should continue to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing against 33.81 in the first degree.

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OIL ( $CL_F ) Buying The Dips At The Blue Box Area

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Hello fellow traders.  In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of OIL, published in members area of the website.  As our members know, OIL is another instrument that we have been trading lately. The price is showing bullish sequences in the cycle from the April  21st low  . The price structure of OIL has been calling for further rally. Consequently, we advised members to avoid selling OIL and keep on buying the dips in the sequences of 3,7,or 11 swings whenever get chance. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast and trading strategy.

OIL 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 12.01.2020

Wave (2) blue pull back is unfolding as Elliott Wave Zig Zag and still looks incomplete at the moment.  The price is  reaching equal legs area at 44.08-43.02 area . As our members know, Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce. We don’t recommend selling it against the main trend and favor the long side from the marked blue box area. As the main trend is bullish, we expect to see 3 waves bounce at least from the mentioned zone. As soon as the price reach 50 Fibonacci Retracement against the B red peak, we should make long positions Risk Free ( put SL at BE).

You can learn more about Zig Zag Elliott Wave Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

OIL

OIL 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 12.03.2020

OIL found buyers at 44.08-43.02 area , the Blue Box area. We got nice rally from there, when wave (2) pull back completed at 43.92 low. All longs from the blue box should be risk free at this stage. We would like to see further rally which will break (1) blue peak (11/25 ). Once proposed break happens we will get confirmation next leg up is in progress. We don’t recommend selling it, and favor staying long from the blue box in risk free positions.

OIL

OIL1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 12.05.2020

Eventually we got more upside and break above 11/25 peak which confirmed next leg up is in progress.  Another short term leg up is possible to complete 5 waves up from the 43.92 low before we get pull back ((ii)) black. The commodity should ideally remain bullish against the 43.92 low in first degree and found buyers in 3,7,11 swings in wave ((ii)) pull back.

You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Keep in mind not every chart is trading recommendation. The best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

OIL

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Elliott Wave View: Pullback in Oil Should Stay Supported

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Oil (CL_F) shows a bullish sequence from April 22, 2020 low calling for further upside. Near term, rally from November 2, 2020 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure where wave ((1)) ended at $43.33 and pullback in wave ((2)) ended at $40.34. Internal of wave ((2)) unfolded as a zigzag where wave (A) ended at $41.29, wave (B) ended at $42.45, and wave (C) ended at $40.34.

Oil has started a wave ((3)) higher and the internal is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave ((2)) low at $40.34, wave 1 ended at $42.35 and dips in wave 2 ended at $40.81. Wave 3 ended at $45.72, wave 4 ended at $45.03, and wave 5 ended at $46.26. This completed wave (1) in higher degree. Wave (2) pullback is currently in progress to correct cycle from November 14 low before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at November 14 low ($40.34) remains intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside. Potential target higher in wave ((3)) is at least 100% of wave ((1)) towards $49.57.

CL_F 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

Oil Elliott Wave

CL_F Elliott Wave Video

Elliott Wave View: Bullish Outlook in Oil (CL)

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Short term Elliott Wave View in Oil (CL) suggests it ended wave II at $33.65 on November 2. Internal of wave II unfolded as a zigzag Elliott wave structure where wave (A) ended at $37.11, wave (B) ended at 41.90, and wave (C) ended at $33.65. This wave II is part of a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure which started on April 22 low.

Short term 60 minutes chart below shows Oil has turned higher in wave III. Up from wave II low at $33.65, wave 1 ended at $34.76 and wave 2 pullback ended at $34.09. The commodity has resumed higher in wave 3 towards $38.23, wave 4 ended at $37.26, and wave 5 ended at $39.35. This completed wave (1) of ((1)) in higher degree. From there, pullback in wave (2) ended at $37.06. It then resumed higher in wave (3) towards $41.33 and wave (4) pullback ended at $39.41.

Expect Oil to end wave (5) soon which should also complete wave ((1)) in higher degree. Afterwards, Oil should pullback in wave ((2)) to correct cycle from November 2 low before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at $33.65 low stays intact, expect Oil to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside.

Oil (CL) 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

Oil (CL) Elliott Wave Nov 11

Oil (CL) Elliott Wave Video