In this video we take a look at the Weeky chart of Crude Oil and in particular the decline from 2011 and 2013 peaks. Structure of the decline from 2011 peak is a FLAT which is a 3-3-5 structure. Wave “c” of an Elliott wave FLAT structure could be an impulse or an Ending Diagonal. In this case we can see wave ((3)) was extended and hence we should be looking for a regular impulse rather than an Ending Diagonal. As wave “c” is an impulse, wave ((1)), ((3)) and ((5)) should have the sub-division of 5 waves. Rally to 62.58 was wave ((4)), with the new lows on 20th January 2016 at 26.19, it only had 3 swings down from wave ((4)) high which is why when it started rallying from the lows and many market participants started favouring a higher degree low to be in place, members of EWF knew that any rallies in Oil were a selling opportunity. Rally did indeed fail at 34.82 for new lows below 26.19 as expected. We can now count 5 swings down from wave ((4)) high which means minimum number of swings are now in place to call the sequence completed but last low was quite marginal and hence ideally it should still see a bit more downside to complete the sequence. Even a triangle or a FLAT in proposed wave (4) can’t be ruled out. Selling at this stage is risky but as far as pivot at 42.21 and 62.58 highs remain intact, Oil can extend more to the downside to end the sequences from 2013 and 2011 peaks.
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