USDINR Archives - Elliott Wave Forecast

The Indian rupee (USDINR) has faced steady pressure in 2025 due to global uncertainty and rising import costs. Higher oil prices and reduced foreign investment have made the currency weaker. The Reserve Bank of India has limited its support, allowing more market-driven movement. As a result, the rupee has dropped closer to 91 against the U.S. dollar. This trend has raised costs for imported goods and added stress to inflation. Exporters benefit from a weaker rupee, but consumers feel the pinch. Businesses that rely on foreign parts or services also face higher expenses.

Looking ahead to 2026, experts expect the rupee to stay under pressure. If global interest rates remain high, foreign funds may continue to leave India. However, strong service exports and digital growth could help slow the decline. The RBI may act carefully to avoid sharp swings. If India boosts manufacturing and keeps inflation in check, the rupee could find more balance by year-end. Analysts also watch global oil prices and trade deals closely. These factors will shape how the rupee performs in the months to come.

Elliott Wave Forecast: USDINR Monthly Chart May 2025

In the last update, wave (v) of ((iii)) had reached 87.97, missing its target by 29 cents before reversing lower. Wave ((iv)) then corrected sharply, nearly hitting the 100% Fibonacci extension at 83.76, and rebounded with strength—suggesting that wave ((iv)) had likely completed. This setup pointed to a continued rise in USDINR through wave ((v)), with a projected target between 89.06 and 90.72, assuming no further extensions. Cue

Elliott Wave Forecast: USDINR Monthly Chart October 2025

Currently, the rupee is near to reach the extreme area to end wave ((v)) of 3. In that resistance zone, the dollar’s strength was expected to be rejected, marking the end of wave 3 and the beginning of wave 4. Then, that wave 4 would retest the support of wave ((iv)) before wave 5 resumed the bullish trend. This sequence was expected to confirm the broader upward structure and reinforce the long-term bullish outlook for USDINR. Let’s see if there is not an extension in this wave ((v)) of 3 to start a new pullback.

Elliott Wave Forecast: USDINR Monthly Chart October 2025 Alternative

In this alternate scenario, wave 3 had already completed at 87.97, followed by wave 4 ending at 83.76. The market is expected to rise toward the 89.06–90.72 range, completing wave (3) and initiating wave (4), assuming no further extensions. The key difference in this setup is the depth of wave (4)’s correction, which is projected to reach the 2022–2023 triangle support zone between 83.00 and 80.40. This area is likely to hold as support, allowing bullish momentum to resume and carry the market higher. (If you want to learn more about Elliott Wave Principle, please follow these links: and .)

Transform Your Trading with Elliott Wave Forecast!

Ready to take control of your trading journey? At Elliott Wave Forecast, we provide the tools you need to stay ahead in the market:

✅ Blue Boxes: Stay ahead in the market with fresh 1-hour charts updated four times daily, daily 4-hour charts on 78 instruments, and precise Blue Box zones that highlight high-probability trade setups based on sequences and cycles.

✅ Live Sessions: Join our daily live discussions and stay on the right side of the market.

✅ Real-Time Guidance: Get your questions answered in our interactive chat room with expert moderators.

🔥 Special Offer: Start your journey with a 14-day trial for only $0.99. Gain access to exclusive forecasts and Blue Box trade setups. No risks, cancel anytime by reaching out to us at support@elliottwave-forecast.com.

💡 Don’t wait and get a DISCOUNT for any plan!

Click in the next link, go to Home Chat and ask for a flat discount code saying that you saw this in Luis’ Blog: 🌐

The Indian rupee USDINR has been experiencing notable fluctuations in recent months. As of today, the rupee has strengthened to 84 per US dollar, marking its highest level since October 2024. This appreciation is driven by heavy selling of the dollar by foreign banks and consistent foreign fund inflows.

Key Factors Influencing the Rupee:

Foreign Investments: Increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio inflows have contributed to the rupee’s strength.
Global Trade Developments: The possibility of China-US trade talks has improved investor sentiment, benefiting Asian currencies, including the rupee.
Domestic Economic Indicators: India’s manufacturing PMI has risen to a 10-month high, reflecting strong demand and healthy order books.
Geopolitical Considerations: Tensions between India and Pakistan have led to some volatility, but optimism over a potential US-India trade deal has helped stabilize the rupee.
Oil Prices: A decline in crude oil prices has supported the rupee, reducing India’s import bill.

Monthly USDINR Chart November 2024

A few months ago, the price movement had formed a wave (iv) triangle instead of the flat correction we had thought before. After that, the pair had moved up, creating wave (v) of ((iii)).

If this wave pattern had been correct and there had been no extension movement, then wave (v) of ((iii)) should have finished in the 84.00 – 85.00 range. Because of this, a price pullback from those levels as wave ((iv)) would not have been surprising.

Also, if this correction had happened in 3, 7, or 11 moves, it would have been a chance to buy and aim for 88.26. In the end, even if there had been no pullback, the final target would still be 88.26. (If you want to learn more about flat corrections, please follow these links: and .)

Monthly USDINR Chart May 2025

Scenario 1:

The current analysis shows that wave (v) of ((iii)) extended to 87.97, missing the target by 29 cents, before reversing lower. The correction in wave ((iv)) nearly reached the 100% Fibonacci extension at 83.76, and then strongly rebounded, suggesting that wave ((iv)) has likely been completed.

As a result, USDINR should continue its upward movement in wave ((v)), ideally reaching the 89.06 – 90.72 range—assuming there are no further extensions in wave ((v)). At this level, the strength of the dollar is expected to be rejected by the market, completing wave 3 and starting the correction in wave 4.

Furthermore, wave 4 should test the support of the previous wave ((iv)) before the upward momentum resumes in wave 5. This progression will confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.

Scenario 2:

The next scenario is similar to the first, but wave 3 was already completed at 87.97, and wave 4 ended at 83.76. Therefore, the market is expected to rise toward 89.06 – 90.72 to finish wave (3) and begin wave (4) if no extensions occur. However, the key difference lies in wave (4)’s correction, which should be deeper and test the 2022-2023 triangle zone between 83.00 – 80.40. This zone should act as support, allowing the bullish momentum to continue upward.

Transform Your Trading with Elliott Wave Forecast!

Ready to take control of your trading journey? At Elliott Wave Forecast, we provide the tools you need to stay ahead in the market:

✅ Hourly Updates: Fresh 1-hour charts updated 4 times a day and 4-hour charts updated daily for 78 instruments.

✅ Blue Boxes: High-frequency trading zones, calculated using sequences, cycles, and extensions. These areas pinpoint ideal setups for smarter trades.