CPER Copper Index Tracker Long Term Cycles & Elliott Wave
Firstly the CPER Copper Index Tracking instrument has an inception date of 11/15/2011. There is data in the HG_F copper futures before this going back many years. That shows copper made an all time high on February 15th, 2011 at 4.649. Translated into this instrument, it is mentioned on the weekly chart. The decline from there into the January 2016 lows appeared to have been a double three in the commodity HG_F. Thus I will work with that idea in this CPER instrument.
The analysis continues below the CPER weekly chart.
Secondly the CPER Copper Index Tracking instrument from the all time highs made what is favored to be a double three correction lower in the wave ((b)) that ended at the 12.97 lows in January 2016. From the January 2016 lows up into the December 2017 highs appeared to be an Elliott Wave impulse. The bounce was strong enough on momentum indicators to suggest it had ended the cycle lower from the all time highs. This is as reflected in the weekly chart shown above.
The analysis continues below the CPER daily chart.
Thirdly, the CPER Copper Index Tracking instrument decline from the December 2017 highs is very ambiguous. This means it is open to more than one interpretation as is most any chart by an Elliott wave analyst. The key points here are as follows. This daily chart decline in wave (II) analysis is derived from price highs and lows. This is coupled with momentum indicator reading highs and lows. The August 2018 lows at 16.20 represent the end of the cycle lower from the December 2017 highs. From there into the April 2019 highs appears to have been an expanded flat 3-3-5 structure. This had another low in January 2019 in 3 waves before getting higher in 5 waves to the April 2019 highs.
In conclusion. The decline from the April 2019 highs is either impulsive as in a five wave c or a double three w-x-y. Either way it should continue lower toward the equal legs area at 13.66 for the rest of this year. If the decline from the April 2019 highs is impulsive, bounces should remain below the July 2019 highs before it reaches the target area at 13.66. Providing it remains above the January 2016 lows it can see a longer term turn back higher develop.
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