Short-term Elliott wave view in Oil (CL) suggests that cycle from July 6 peak is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from July 6 high, wave (W) ended at 65.01 and rally to 74.30 ended wave (X). Wave (Y) lower is in progress now with internal subdivision as another double three in lesser degree. Down from wave (X), wave ((w)) ended at 67.61 and rally to 70.18 ended wave ((x)). Oil then resumes lower in wave ((y)) towards 65.15 and this completed wave W.
Wave X bounce ended at 69.62 with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave W, wave ((a)) ended at 68.90 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 66.67. Rally in wave ((c)) ended at 69.62. This completed wave X in higher degree. Near term, while rally fails below wave X at 69.62, and more importantly below July 31 high at 74.30, expect Oil to resume lower. As far as pivot at 74.30 high stays intact, rally should fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% fibonacci extension from July 6 peak towards 56.3 – 63.1.
