Since reaching its low on April 7, 2025, Dow Futures (YM) has shown signs of recovery. The Index has initiated a rally that requires further development to confirm whether the April 7 low will hold as a significant bottom. To establish this, the Index needs to either achieve a new all-time high or complete a clear five-wave structure from the April 7 low. Either of these developments would significantly reduce the probability of the Index undergoing a larger double correction. Currently, the rally from the April 7 low is in progress and appears to be forming an impulsive structure. An impulse is typically a strong bullish signal in technical analysis.
From the April 7 low, the rally has unfolded as follows: wave 1 peaked at 39,427. A corrective wave 2 then followed which ended at 36,882. The ongoing wave 3 is subdividing into a smaller-degree impulse, indicating continued upward momentum. Within wave 3, wave ((i)) concluded at 41,140, and the subsequent pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 37,998. The advance in wave ((iii)) reached 42,976, with the corrective wave ((iv)) bottoming at 41,236. Currently, wave ((v)) is forming as an ending diagonal, a pattern often signaling the final stage of a move. As long as the Index remains above 41,238, expect one more push higher to complete wave ((v)), which should also finalize wave 3 in the higher degree. Following this, the Index is anticipated to experience a larger-degree wave 4 pullback, likely unfolding in a 3, 7, or 11-swing corrective pattern, before resuming its upward trajectory.
Dow Futures (YM) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Technical Chart
