The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) experienced a significant selloff following a tariff announcement, dropping from an all-time high of $540.81 to a low of $402.39 on April 7, 2025. This decline appears to be a corrective three-wave pullback, indicating that the market’s overall bullish trend remains intact. Since hitting this low, the ETF has reversed course and begun rallying, with the upward movement taking the form of a nested five-wave structure, suggesting strong bullish momentum.
From the April 7 low, wave (1) peaked at $443.14, followed by a pullback in wave (2) that bottomed at $404.44. The ETF then resumed its ascent in wave (3), which has further internal subdivisions. Within wave (3), wave 1 ended at $468.41, and wave 2 found support at $427.99. The ETF then extended higher in wave 3, which itself subdivided into smaller waves. Within wave 3, wave ((i)) reached $474.81, wave ((ii)) dipped to $462.43. Wave ((iii)) surged to $487.18, wave ((iv)) pulled back to $478.12, and wave ((v)) completed at $490.91, finalizing wave 3 of the higher degree. A corrective wave 4 then found support at $476.78.
Near term, the ETF is expected to complete wave 5, which should also conclude wave (3) of the larger structure. Following this, a corrective wave (4) is likely to retrace part of the rally from the April 9 low before the ETF resumes higher. As long as the pivot at $428 holds, any dips should find support in a 3, 7, or 11-swing pattern, supporting further upside. This analysis points to a bullish outlook for the QQQ, with potential for continued gains in the near term.
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Technical Chart
QQQ hourly chart showing current wave structure with projected targets and critical support
