In our latest Elliott Wave analysis of Alphabet ($GOOGL) on the 30 minute chart, we observe a clear 5-wave impulse structure unfolding to the downside, originating from the February 5, 2025 peak. This decline aligns with the broader corrective pattern, and we believe $GOOGL is now in the final stages of this bearish move before a larger recovery takes shape. Let’s break down the structure and what to expect next.
Wave Structure Breakdown
The chart below illustrates that $GOOGL reached a significant high on February 5, 2025, at 209.51.
From this peak, the stock initiated a 5-wave impulse decline:
- Wave ((1)): The first leg down concluded at 156.72, marking a sharp initial decline from the February 5 high.
- Wave ((2)): A corrective rally followed, retracing part of the decline and peaking at 171.28, completing wave ((2)) as the 30 minute chart below shows.
- Wave ((3)): The decline resumed with wave ((3)), which extended lower to 150.66.
- Wave ((4)): A counter-trend rally unfolded in a 3-wave structure, labeled (W)-(X)-(Y) on the chart, reaching a high of 159.23 on April 3, 2025, as indicated on the chart. This peak marked the completion of wave ((4)).
- Wave ((5)): The current leg lower began after the April 3 peak at 159.23. As of the latest data on April 3, 2025, $GOOGL has reached 152.76, as shown on the chart, and appears to be in the final stages of wave ((5)).
Current Position and Invalidation Level
The chart highlights an invalidation level at 171.34 (the “RIGHT SIDE+” line in red). As long as $GOOGL remains below this level, the bearish outlook for wave ((5)) remains valid. With the current price at 152.76, wave ((5)) is likely approaching its conclusion soon. It should not go below 138.7, otherwise wave ((3)) will be the shortest wave.
What’s Next: A Larger 3-Wave Rally
Upon the completion of wave ((5)), we expect $GOOGL to initiate a larger 3-wave corrective rally. This should be end a higher-degree wave b. The rally should unfold in a 3-wave pattern (A-B-C) and could target a retracement toward the 170.6 area, where prior wave ((2)) levels may act as resistance.
