USD/JPY Archives - Page 3 of 4 - Elliott Wave Forecast

USDJPY : Trading Confluence Zones

July 7, 2019 By EWF Aidan

USDJPY Technical Analysis

USDJPY last week signalled bulls to enter the market. Why did traders decide to “BUY” the USDJPY pair towards the end of the week for a push higher? Some speculators will say because of fundamental analysis/news but technical traders will say because price hit a confluence zone. Trading confluence is when 2 or more trading strategies converge together and offer a high probability BUY/SELL trade setup. Using different trading strategies to all line up together in a specific price area/zone will offer the trader more confidence in taking the trade and will offer a clearer trade setup where stops, entry and targets can be set in advance. Combining different trading strategies can also be used as “trading filters” to signal the trader on which side to take the trade.

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart 6.28.2019: In the chart below, on June 28/2019 price reacts to a support/resistance zone (filter #1) that a possible bounce higher can happen. A reaction from this zone allows a trader to identify that this particular zone will be an important area where price will possibly signal which side it wants to continue moving on.

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart 7.5.2019: In the chart below, price pushes higher at the market open of the following week which then forms a possible bullish pattern (blue) where the pattern BUY entry triggers if price moves back lower and hits the BC 0.50% Fib. retracement level. The blue bullish pattern (filter #2) buy entry aligns with previous support zone that was established in the chart above. The stochastic indicator (filter #3) is also registering below the 20 level indicating that price is “oversold” and signalling traders to watch for buying opportunities. Watching the stochastic hit the “oversold” area together with price hitting the support zone triggered more buyers to enter the market. Price reacts higher from the support zone and forms an inverted bullish head and shoulders breakout pattern (green) where more buyers entered the market on the break above the neck line of the bullish pattern (filter #4). Combining trading strategies that are all aligning entry in the same area/zone and are all signalling the same possible direction will give a trader more confidence in entering the market.

Filter #1 Support/Resistance Area, Filter #2 Bullish Market Pattern (blue), Filter #3 Stochastic Indicator, Filter #4 Inverted Head and Shoulders Market Breakout Pattern (green)

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan

*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***

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USDJPY : Will Pair Continue Lower?

June 9, 2019 By EWF Aidan

USDJPY Technical Analysis June 9/2019

USDJPY 15 Minute Chart June 8/2019: A bearish view can be seen on the 15 minute chart. In the chart below, price has broken below the previous higher low level (purple) which can be signalling that USDJPY may now shift and move lower to make newer lows. Breaking below the previous higher low level has stopped the higher high/higher low upside sequence (purple) and can be showing the upside move has had enough for the moment. Another sign that USDJPY can continue moving lower is that the moving average has also broken below previous higher low level (light blue). Also it is clearly visible that the moving average upside sequence (light blue) has now broken below the black MA channel supporting the view that USDJPY can make another round lower in the coming week.

USDJPY 5 Minute Chart June 8/2019 : In the 5 minute chart below, a possible bearish flag breakout pattern can be forming. A break below the previous higher low (HL) and a break below the bottom line of the bearish flag can signal that USDJPY will continue lower. I posted the SELL on Twitter June 7/2019 at around 1:10 pm EDT > “Sold USDJPY @ 108.15 SL @ 108.65 TP @ 107.65”. Price can still make another push higher but as long as price stays below 108.62 we will remain bearish. Only time will tell if USDJPY breaks higher or lower.

*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***

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Elliott Wave View Calling for Pullback in USDJPY

May 17, 2019 By EWFHendra

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDJPY calls the decline from April 25 peak (112.4) ended as wave ((A)) at 108.99. This suggests the decline from there is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave B bounce is in progress to correct cycle from April 25 peak in 3, 7, or 11 swing. The internal of the bounce is unfolding as another zigzag. Up from 108.99, wave ((a)) ended at 109.77 and wave ((b)) ended at 109.13. Wave ((c)) of B is in progress as a 5 waves and expected to complete with 1 more push higher within the blue box of 109.93 – 110.4.

The pair has already reached 100% extension relative to wave ((A)), thus it has met the minimum target requirement. From the blue box area, we expect pair to either resume to new low in wave C or at least pullback in 3 waves. If the present rally continues to extend higher to 110.42 (1.618 extension), it increases the risk that the entire rally from May 13 low (108.99) is an impulse rather than zigzag. As far as pivot at April 25 peak (112.4) remains intact, rally should fail in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.

USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

1 hour USDJPY Elliott Wave Video

Elliott Wave View: Downside Pressure in USDJPY

May 10, 2019 By EWFHendra

Short Term Elliott Wave is calling for an impulsive move in USDJPY from April 25, 2019 peak. Down from 112.4, wave ((i)) ended at 111.36 and wave ((ii)) ended at 112.03. Wave ((iii)) ended at 109.44, and wave ((iv)) ended at 110.05. Internal of wave ((iii)) subdivides also as an impulse of lesser degree. Down from 112.03, Wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 111.02, wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 111.7. Wave (iii) of ((iii)) ended at 110.27, wave (iv) of ((iii)) ended at 110.96, and wave (v) of ((iii)) ended at 109.44.

Bounce in wave ((iv)) ended at 110.05 as a zigzag structure. Wave (a) of ((iv)) ended at 109.9, wave (b) of ((iv)) ended at 109.59, and wave (c) of ((iv)) ended at 110.05. Pair still needs to break below wave ((iii)) at 109.44 to avoid a double correction in wave ((iv)). If pair instead breaks above 110.05, then wave ((iv)) remains in progress as a double zigzag before the decline resumes. We don’t like buying the pair and expect pair to extend lower in wave ((v)) as far as pivot at 112.03 high stays intact.

USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

1 hour Nikkei (NKD_F) Elliott Wave Video

ZN_F Elliott Wave Analysis, USDJPY and SPX

March 25, 2019 By Daud Bhatti

ZN_F has rallied throughout March so in this video blog, we will take a look at the Technical outlook for ZN_F (US 10 Year Note Futures), present Elliott wave count and also correlate it with USDJPY and $SPX to explain to readers and viewers how it could impact the Yen and $SPX.

ZN_F Elliott Wave Analysis since 10.2018 low

Rally from October 2018 low is proposed to be taking the form of a Zigzag Elliott Wave Structure when rally to 119’6 completed wave (1), dip to 117’22 completed wave (2), rally to 121’20 completed wave (3), pull back to 120’28 completed wave (4) and move to 123’08 completed wave (5) of wave ((A)) impulse. This was followed by a 3 waves pull back to 121’02 which completed wave ((B)) and we have already seen a new high above 123’08 which suggests wave ((C)) higher is in progress, it has a measured move target of 126’27 – 128’07 and in extension 130’14. Pull backs should remain supported and find buyers in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot at 121’15 i.e. wave (2) of ((C)) low remains intact. While below 130’14, it’s a 3 waves move. However, a break above 130’14 would suggest rally from 121’02 is actually wave ((3)) and not wave ((C)) and would result in more upward extension.

ZN_F Elliott Wave Analysis – Alternate View

This view suggests rally from October 2018 low would unfold as a double three Elliott Wave structure rather than a zigzag but would have the same end result and same measured move target area as far as January 18, 2019 low remains in place. This would allow for a deeper pull back from the first blue box area i.e. 124’20 – 125’15 before rally continues. Wave (B) should offer a buying opportunity in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings if this view plays out.

ZN_F Correlation with USDJPY and SPX

Correlation suggests that until ZN_F doesn’t reach 126’27 – 128’07, USDJPY and SPX should either drop or remain sideways – lower. Another high in SPX can’t be ruled out during a pull back of ZN_F but any strength from current levels should be limited and we should soon see a roll over in SPX and other Indices as well.

ZN_F Elliott Wave Analysis, USDJPY and SPX Video

USDJPY : Higher High / Higher Low Sequence Trade Setup

March 11, 2019 By EWF Aidan

USDJPY Technical Analysis March 11/2019

USDJPY BUY/LONG Trade Setup: USDJPY has formed a bullish inverted Head and Shoulders market breakout pattern (purple) and has already broken above the neck line BUY entry so we will expect more possible upside in the following days. A Higher High / Higher Low Sequence has started signalling that the pair can extend higher. USDJPY will now have to respect the blue Moving Average on the 30 minute chart (below) to confirm more bullish momentum higher. Traders will need to watch price respect moving average first followed by a good break above the green BUY breakout trend line. A combination of price respecting the moving average followed by a good break above the green BUY breakout level will signal bullish momentum and can send USDJPY higher and possibly extend above the March 5/2019 high. If looking to BUY USDJPY watch and wait to BUY on the break above the green BUY entry trend line with Stop Loss at the previous Higher Low and watching for price to hit the target levels above as shown in the chart below. As long as the previous higher low holds expect for trend to continue higher. Only time will tell what the pair will do but as for now I remain bullish until otherwise. Trade what you see and squeeze the trigger if and when you see USDJPY start to move higher. Trade safe.

USDCAD 30 Minute Chart 3.11.2019

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