In this blog, I want to share some short-term Elliott Wave charts of Palladium which we presented to our members in the past. Below, you see the 1-hour updated chart presented to our clients on the 11/30/18 indicating that Amazon ended the cycle from 11/23 low (1094.70) in black wave ((a)) at 11/30 peak (1198.1).

As Palladium ended the cycle from 11/23 low in black wave ((a)). It started a pullback lower in black wave ((b)). The pullback proposed to unfolded as an Elliott Wave Zig Zag correction. Due to the right side bullish stamp, which you can see in the chart below. We advised members that we like buying Palladium at the equal legs from 11/30 peak.  Therefore, we expected buyers to appear in the dips in the sequences of 3, 7 or 11 swings. At the 100 – 1.236 Fibonacci extension of blue (a)-(b). Which came at around  1148.62-1142.76  area. The commodity reached that blue box in the chart below and we opened a long position in that area. As that was the first area for buyers to appear to take prices to new highs above wave 1 peak or a larger 3 waves bounce at least.

Palladium 11.30.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis

In the last Elliott Wave chart, you can see that Palladium bounced nicely higher from the equal legs area (blue box). Our members bought the equal legs from 1148.6+ areas and any trade from that area are risk-free which means the stop should be at breakeven, targeting higher levels.   Do please keep in mind that the 1-hour chart which I presented may have already changed. If you want updates every day. I can recommend you to take our December special below.

Palladium 12.04.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis

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Palladium recently broke above January 2018 peak which has brought about a new wave of optimism in the commodity but is it the right time to jump into the longs or there could be a better time and levels to buy the commodity. In June 2018, Palladium was in a pull back to correct the cycle from January 2016 low and we said the pull back was a buying opportunity.

Palladium Bullish Elliott Wave Sequence from January 2016 low

Below is the weekly chart of Palladium which shows rally to January 2018 was an ((A))-((B))-((C)) which completed wave “w” and hence 3 swings. Dip to August 2018 low was wave “x” and completed 4th swing while new high above January 2018 is the 5th swing and has created a bullish 5 swings sequence. Cycle from August 2018 low has ended at 1137.30, this was an impulsive rally and has been labelled as wave (A). Palladium is currently in a pull back to correct the cycle from August 2018 low and that’s why we believe now is not the right time to jump into the longs and we like waiting for a pull back in wave (B) in 3-7-11 swings to buy the commodity. We will highlight the buying area with a blue box in the charts presented inside members area when we see it developing.

USDCHF Could Provide The Timing to Buy Pull back  in Palladium

USDCHF also has incomplete sequences from 2.16.2018 and 9.21.2018 lows. As far as dips hold above 11.7.2018 low and more importantly above 9.21.2018 low, we expect the pair to see more upside toward 1.0413 – 1.0620. From there, US Dollar should get weak and USDCHF should turn lower in larger 3 swings at least. This area could provide the timing to buy the pull back in Palladium

Palladium ended a cycle from January 2016 low (452.63) and the pull back should be a Palladium Buying Opportunity. Rally from January 2016 low can be counted as an Elliott Wave Impulse when rally to 776 completed wave ((1)), dip to 652.15 low completed wave ((2)), rally to 1023.95)completed wave ((3)), dip to 973.60 low complete wave ((4)) and rally to 1133 completed wave ((5)) which we have labelled as wave “a” of (III) of a diagonal higher.

Palladium Buying Opportunity – Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis

Chart above shows the Impulse rally up from 452.63 low which has completed and we are now in a pull back to correct the cycle from 452.63 low. So far we have seen 3 swings lower to 890.85 which was followed by a bounce which has so far failed below 1133 peak. As bounces fail below 1047.75 ((X)) high and more importantly below 1133 peak, Palladium has scope to trade lower into 806.98 – 749.94 area to complete a 7 swings corrective decline. Due to 5 waves rally from 452.63 low, we expect to see buyers appearing in 806.98 – 749.94 area and then the rally can resume for new highs above 1133 peak or we should get a larger 3 waves bounce at least. Once ((W)) low at 890.85 is broken, we will have 5 swings incomplete sequence down from 1133 peak and then wave (X) bounce could offer a selling opportunity for a move lower into 806.98 – 749.94 area which is where we believe we should get another Palladium buying opportunity.

In this Technical blog, we are going to take a quick look at the past 1 hour Elliott Wave performance of Palladium. Which we presented to our clients at elliottwave-forecast.com. We are going to explain the structure from 10/16 (1005.21) cycle below.

Palladium 1 Hour October 18 Asia updated Elliott Wave Chart

A rally from 9/20 low (898.27) to 10/16 peak (1005.21) ended the intermediate wave (W) higher as a flat. Where Minor wave A ended at 938.78 peak, Minor wave B ended at 904.38 low and Minor wave C of a flat-ended in 5 waves at 1005.21 peak. Below from there, metal was expected to do a pullback to correct that intermediate cycle in wave (X) and was expected to find the buyer’s in a sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings. It is also important to bear in mind that, in the above Chart, we can see that there is a green arrow to indicate that the trend is up, the bullish Sequence mark to maintain the sequence is also bullish. So, we advised our member’s to buy the dips in the metal on any blue box in 3, 7 or 11 swings provided the pivot at 9/20 low (898.27) stays intact.

Palladium 1 Hour October 18 Midday updated Elliott Wave Chart

Below from wave (W) peak, the metal corrected that cycle in 3 waves as zigzag correction. Where Minor wave A ended in 5 waves at 969.77 low, Minor wave B bounce ended in 3 swings at 986.85 peak and Minor wave C of (X) was expected to end 5 waves in between 949.06-925.45 100%-1.618% Fibonacci extension area of A-B. And that area in the metal was expected to see buyer’s for new highs ideally provided the pivot at  9/20 low (898.27) stayed intact or for a 3 wave bounce at least to allow our members to create a risk-free position.

The metal gave us the reaction higher as expected from the area in between 949.06-925.45 100%-1.618% Fibonacci extension area of A-B and ended the wave C of (X) at 942.90 on 10/19 low. Afterwards, metal broke to new highs suggested that the instrument started the intermediate (Y) leg higher already. The 1 hour NY updated chart from 11.08 above, is showing metal breaking higher and showing another bullish sequence within the cycle from 9/20 low. And was looking to start the Minor wave B pullback from 1016.13-1023.63 area before further upside. If interested in latest 1hr, 4hr, Daily & Weekly path then Try 14-day  Free Trial & get the latest market update in Palladium & other commodities as well.

 

The $PA_F  Palladium Weekly Bullish Swing Sequence

 Palladium is a bullish commodity. Firstly I’ll mention the attached Palladium chart below is only a swing sequence labeled chart. This is from the monthly time frame. The data goes back to the 1980’s. It should not be relevant of as what the structure of the wave and cycle up into the January 2001 highs at 1090 should be. I will give it the benefit of any doubt as it is most likely a larger degree impulse. From the January 2001 highs the decline was certainly strong and deep. Certainly enough to suggest the cycle up from the all time lows had ended and was being corrected until the low of 145 in April 2003.

The best reading of the chart suggests the weekly cycle from the 1/22/2001 high is over on 4/14/2003 low at 145 and now it is showing a bullish sequence from that low in the weekly cycle. In the rally from the April 2003 lows, either a cycle ended at 862 in February 2011 or September 2014. This will not matter either way as well. More clear is the decline into 451.50 in January 2016 corrected the cycle up from the April 2003 lows. Up from the January 2016 lows the rally thus far now has broken above both of the previously mentioned February 2011 highs as well as the September 2014 highs.

Lastly these new highs creates a five swing bullish sequence up from the April 2003 lows. Even in either scenario of whether a cycle up from the 2003 lows ended at the February 2011 or September 2014 highs the cycle up from the April 2003 was corrected with the January 2016 lows. While it is above there it leaves the commodity price in either of two scenarios which are both bullish. The least bullish being it is a double three up from the 2003 lows. It would show an equal legs – 1.236 extension of the first two legs up at the 1169- 1338 area.

That is above the January 2001 highs at 1090 and would further create an even larger degree bullish sequence from the all time lows. From the 1169- 1338 area it would likely correct the whole cycle up from the 2003 lows. The more bullish version of the larger cycle up from the 2003 lows suggests it is in a larger degree wave three while it is above the January 2016 low. It would more likely see our preferred wave three extension of 1.618 at 1612+ area at a minimum. That before correcting the cycle up from the January 2016 lows.

Thanks for looking. Feel free to come visit our website . Take a trial subscription and see if we can be of help. Kind regards & good luck trading.

Lewis Jones of the ElliottWave-Forecast.com Team