Short term Elliott Wave view in Ten Year Notes (ZN) suggests that cycle from 3.24.2023 high is in progress as an expanded flat. Down from 3.24.2023 high, wave ((A)) ended at 113’3 and wave ((B)) ended at 117 as the 45 minutes chart below shows. The Notes then extends lower in wave ((C)). Internal subdivision of wave ((C)) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((B)), wave 1 ended at 116’09 and wave 2 ended at 116’12. The Notes extends lower in wave 3 towards 115’13, and wave 4 rally ended at 115’29. Final leg wave 5 ended at 115’01 which completed wave (1). The Notes then corrected in wave (2) which ended at 116’16.
Internal subdivision of wave (2) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (1), wave A ended at 115’31 and pullback in wave B ended at 115’24. Wave C higher ended at 116’16 which completed wave (2). The Notes then extends lower in wave (3). Down from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 115’05 and rally in wave 2 ended at 115’18. The Notes then extends lower in wave 3 towards 113’04 and rally in wave 4 ended at 113’25. The Notes should soon end wave 5 of (3), then it should rally in wave (4) to correct cycle from 5.11.2023 high before it resumes lower. Near term, as far as pivot at 117 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((A)). This area comes at 111’31 – 113’28 where buyers can appear for 3 waves rally at least.
