Oil gapped up almost 20% early this week after the news that Saudi Arabia’s oil refineries got attacked by drones. It has since retraced after Saudi Arabia said they can restore most of the lost output within days. In the chart below, we label the rally to 63.39 as ending wave C of (X). It’s therefore part of an expanded Flat structure which started from June 5 low. The internal of wave C unfolded as a 5 waves impulse as an Expanded Flat is a 3-3-5 structure.
Wave ((i)) of C ended at 58.76 as a diagonal, and pullback to 54 ended wave ((ii)) of C. It then gapped up higher to 63.34 and ended wave ((iii)) of C after the news. Wave ((iv)) of C pullback ended at 58.77 and wave ((v)) of C ended at 63.38. This rally also completed wave (X) in larger degree. The decline from there looks impulsive and will soon complete wave ((i)) as 5 waves. Oil should then bounce in wave ((ii)) to correct the decline from 63.39. Afterwards, as far as pivot at 63.39 high stays intact, it should extend lower at least 1 more leg lower.
Oil (CL_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
