In today’s meeting, the ECB (European Central Bank) has downgraded their economic growth and inflation forecast. In addition, it has announced a fresh stimulus in the form of TLTRO (Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations). This is basically a long term loan given to banks to increase loan creation. If the banks can lend above a specified benchmark, then they will be able to borrow from ECB at a negative rate. This will provide incentive for the banks to lend and thus increase private spending in the economy.
EURUSD fell 120 pips as a response and broke below the previous low on 11/12/2018 at 1.1216. This has created a bearish sequence in the pair and favors further downside. The decline from 2/28/2019 high (1.1419) is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure where wave ((i)) ended at 1.1357 and wave ((ii)) ended at 1.1408. Wave ((iii)) remains in progress and also subdivides as an impulse of lesser degree. Wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 1.1296, wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 1.1324, and wave (iii) of ((iii)) ended at 1.1175. Near term, while bounce stays below 1.1419, expect pair to extend lower. We don’t like buying the pair and prefer further downside while rally fails in 3, 7, or 11 swing below 1.1419.