Short Term Elliott Wave View in AUDUSD suggests cycle from April 5 high ended at 0.7027 in wave (1). Down from April 5 high, wave 1 ended at 0.7396 and rally in wave 2 ended at 0.7493. Pair then extends lower in wave 3 towards 0.705, and rally in wave 4 ended at 0.718. Final leg lower wave 5 ended at 0.7027 which completed wave (1). Wave (2) rally is currently in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure.
Up from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 0.7147 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 0.7076. Expect wave ((c)) to end soon and this should complete wave W. Pair should then pullback in wave X in 3 swing before it turns higher in wave Y as another 3 swing zigzag structure. At this point, we can’t use Fibonacci extension to measure the potential target for wave (2) as we don’t have wave W and X fully formed yet. We could use Fibonacci retracement of wave (1) to estimate target for wave (2). A 50% – 76.4% retracement of wave (1) comes at 0.734 – 0.751 where wave (2) may be complete. Near term, as far as pivot at 0.7658 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
