Introduction: Waves and the Cuban Cycle
As Cubans and as wave theorists, we attempt to connect both identities by creating a socio-economic wave forecast of the Cuban Cycle. First, it is important to understand that this cycle does not behave like a real financial market. Time in this context is linear, and corrections do not appear as they do in regular markets. Instead, they manifest through a series of events that contract the momentum of the Cuban Cycle. Consequently, Fibonacci extensions are traced from the years within these corrections.
Understanding the Nature of Waves
Second, we must grasp the nature of waves themselves. The first wave represents a struggle between bears and bulls, each fighting for control of the trend. Wave two occurs when the dominant side comes under attack, ultimately losing the trend. Wave three is when the victorious side gains momentum and drives the market forward, only to face renewed resistance that creates wave four. Finally, the initial winner prevails again, but without momentum, signaling the end of the cycle. With this framework of Elliott Wave theory in mind, we can return to the Cuban regime and its historical trajectory.
Wave 1: Batista and the Rise of Castro
The Cuban Cycle began in 1952, when former President Batista seized power and became a dictator. This marked the end of Cuban democracy and the beginning of wave one. From that moment, the two sides were defined: the Cuban Regime, led by Fidel Castro, as the bulls, and the opposition, striving for democracy, as the bears. In 1953, Castro and his followers launched the Moncada Barracks attack, which failed and led to their imprisonment. Yet this defeat generated momentum, as the revolution gained recognition both nationally and internationally. Released in 1955, Castro went into exile in Mexico, returning in 1956 with 80 rebels to fight Batista. This marked the correction of wave one and the emergence of wave two, a direct confrontation between the regime and Batista’s government. The fight ended in 1959 with Castro’s victory, transitioning into wave three.
Wave 3: Consolidation and Global Crisis
Wave three was the most powerful, shaping Cuba’s destiny and global relations. It brought crisis, repression, mass emigration, and broken promises. More than two million Cubans fled the country, while others faced imprisonment for trivial acts such as carrying U.S. dollars or listening to Western music.
Using Fibonacci extensions of the seven-year wave one, we can project key turning points:
- 1970 (1.618)
- 1979 (2.618)
- 1980 (3.236)
- 1989 (4.236)
- 2007 (6.85)
Subdivisions of Wave 3 (1959–1989)
From 1959 to 1961, the regime consolidated power, culminating in the Bay of Pigs invasion and Castro’s declaration of socialism. Cuba aligned with the USSR, triggering the Missile Crisis and cementing its place in a bipolar world.
Small corrections occurred, such as the failed 1970 sugar harvest, but the regime remained resilient. The Mariel boatlift of 1980, when 120,000 Cubans fled to Miami, marked a major crisis yet did not break the regime’s momentum. By 1989, however, the 4.236 extension signaled a turning point. Gorbachev’s reforms strained Soviet-Cuban relations, and the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 devastated Cuba’s economy.
Wave 4: The Special Period
The collapse of Soviet support ushered in the “Special Period,” a clear wave four. Trade collapsed, oil imports plummeted, and construction of Cuba’s nuclear plant was abandoned. Public criticism of the regime became possible, and limited freedoms were granted out of necessity, such as carrying foreign currency or allowing visits from Cubans abroad.
Wave four ended around 1995, marking the transition into wave five
Wave 5: Weak Regime, Fading Momentum
Wave five was characterized by a weakened regime, still in control but lacking momentum. Without Soviet support, the trend continued but with diminishing strength. Temporary relief came from Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela, but it ultimately failed to restore lasting stability.
Measuring the 43 years from 1952 to 1995 and applying a 0.618 ratio gives 26 years, pointing to a possible end around 2016–2020. According to Elliott Wave principles, combined with the regime’s manipulation of mass psychology, this period may mark the conclusion of Cuba’s long cycle.
