USDCAD Elliott Wave Analysis and swing analysis suggests pair is showing 5 swings up from 9.8.2017 low. Impulsive sequence runs in 5, 9, 13, 17 and so on whereas corrective sequence runs in 3,7,11,15 and so on. Daily chart below shows the move up from 9.8.2017 low is overlapping and hence it’s corrective in natures and not impulsive. This means 5 swings is an incomplete sequence and pair is need of 7th swing to complete a 7 swings sequence up from 9.8.2017 low.

USDCAD Elliott Wave Analysis – Daily Swings Sequence

Chart below shows the swings sequence up from 9.8.2017 low where rally to 1.2916 (10.27.2017) completed swing 1, drop to 1.2250 (1.31.2018) completed swing 2, rally to 1.3124 (3.19.2018) completed swing 3, pull back to 1.2527 (4.17.2018) completed swing 4 and rally to 1.3386 (6.27.2018) completed swing 5, current pull back should complete swing 6 and should ideally stay above the trend line which connects swings 2 and 4 on a closing basis. The trend line is currently at 1.2949. After 6th swing is complete, we expect the pair to rally towards 1.3591 – 1.3844 area (100 -123.6 extension area of the first 3 swings) to complete a 7 swings sequence from 9.8.2017 low.

USDCAD 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis

USDCAD Elliott Wave Analysis in 4 hour time frame shows the structure of the 6th swing. It is proposed to be unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure and expected to complete soon. Chart below shows a right side green up arrow which indicates the right side in this time frame is to the upside and thus, we would only be looking for buying opportunities in this time frame in the sequences of 3, 7 or 11 swings. In this case, correction has taken the form of 7 swings and blue box (1.2976 – 1.2780) represents the inflection area where correction is expected to complete and rally is expected to resume for new highs or produce a 3 waves bounce at least to allow buyers to create a risk free position.

USDCAD short-term Elliott Wave view suggests that the bounce to 1.2998 on 5/08 high ended primary wave ((2)). Below from there, primary wave ((3)) remains in progress as an Impulse Elliott Wave structure looking for more downside extension. In Impulse wave, the subdivision of wave 1, 3, and 5 is also an impulse structure of a lesser degree. On the other hand, wave 2 & 4 are corrective in nature i.e double, triple three, Flat etc. In the case of USDCAD, Intermediate wave 1, 3 and 5 are impulse with sub-division of  1, 2, 3, 4 & 5 in Minor degree.

Down from 1.2998 high, the pair ended intermediate wave (1) in 5 waves at 1.2725 low. Then the bounce to 1.2924 high ended intermediate wave (2) as zigzag and the correction against 5/08 high (1.2998). Below from there, Intermediate wave (3) of ((3)) is in progress looking for more downside extension as an impulse. Minor degree wave 1 of (3) ended in 5 waves at 1.2745 low and the bounce to 1.2911 high ended Minor wave 2 of (3) as a zigzag correction. Near-term focus remains towards 1.2733-1.2691, 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of wave 1 & 2, to end the Minute degree wave ((i)) of 3 lower. Afterwards, the pair should bounce in Minute wave ((ii)) to correct the cycle from 1.2911 high before further decline resumes. We don’t like buying the proposed bounces.

USDCAD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

USDCAD Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally to 1.2998 on May 08,2018 high ended Primary wave ((2)). The internals of Primary wave ((2))  unfolded as a Zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Intermediate wave (A) ended at 1.29. Afterwards, the sideways consolidation to 1.2837 low ended Intermediate wave (B) as a triangle Elliott Wave structure and rally to 1.2998 high ended Intermediate wave (C) of ((2)).

Down from there, Primary wave ((3)) remains in progress as an Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Internals of Wave (1) of ((3)) subdivided as an impulse structure of a lesser degree. Minor wave 1 ended at 1.2937, Minor wave 2 ended at 1.2975, Minor wave 3 ended at 1.2741 low. Minor wave 4 ended at 1.2814 and Minor wave 5 of (1) ended at 1.2725 low. Above from there, Intermediate wave (2) of ((3)) remains in progress to correct cycle from 5.8.2018 high and expected to do a double correction in 7 swing structure.

Near-term focus remain towards 1.2821 – 1.2839, which is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension area of ((w))-((x)), to end Minor wave W. Pair should then do a 3 wave pullback in Minor wave X before another leg higher in Minor wave Y of (2) takes place. As far as a pivot at 5.8 high (1.2998) remains intact, pair should eventually resume lower. We don’t like buying the pair into the proposed rally.

USDCAD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD Elliott Wave short-term view suggests that the bounce to 1.2942 high ended Intermediate degree wave (2). Then the decline from there is unfolding in an impulse sequence with an internal sub-division of each leg lower is showing 5 waves structure thus favored it to be an impulse. Below from 1.2942 high, Intermediate wave (3) remains in progress in 5 waves structure looking for 1 more push lower before a bounce in Intermediate wave (4) takes place.

Now let’s take a quick look at the short-term price action in the pair from 1.2942 high. The decline from there can be seen in 5 waves impulse sequence, where Minor wave 1 of (3) ended in 5 waves at 1.2744. Minor wave 2 of (3) ended 1.2818, Minor wave 3 of (3) ended in another 5 waves at 1.2543 low. And above from there Minor wave 4 of (3) bounce ended in 3 swings as a Flat structure at 1.2622 high. Below from there, the pair is expected to see another marginal push lower towards the inverse 1.236-1.618% ext area of Minor wave 4 at 1.2524-1.2493 area approximately to end the Minor wave 5 of (3) lower. However, in case of further downside extension pair can extend in Minor wave 5 of (3) towards wave 5=1 target area as well at 1.2418-1.2373 area before a bounce in intermediate wave (4) takes place against 1.2942 high. Which should then expected to fail in 3, 7 or 11 swings against 1.2942 high for further downside extension, so don’t like buying the pair into proposed bounces.

USDCAD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

Cycle degree of labeling

USDCAD Elliott Wave view suggests that the decline from 3/19 high (1.313) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Minor wave 1 ended at 1.2819, Minor wave 2 ended at 1.2943, and Minor wave 3 is in progress. Internal of Minor wave 3 also unfolded as an Elliott Wave impulse structure in lesser Minute degree with a nest. Down from 1.2943, Minute wave ((i)) of 3 ended at  1.2771 and Minute wave ((ii)) of 3 ended at 1.2847. Minute wave (((iii)) of 3 is unfolding as a 5 waves of lesser Minutte degree.

Down from Minute wave ((ii)) at 1.2847, Minutte wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 1.274, and bounce to 1.2819 ended Minutte wave (ii) of ((iii)). Minutte wave (iii) of ((iii)) should complete with 1 more leg lower. Afterwards, expect pair to do minor bounce in Minutte wave (iv) of ((iii)) before turning lower again. As far as Minor wave 2 pivot at 4/2 high (1.2943) stays intact in the bounce, expect pair to turn lower. Pair should extend lower a few more legs before ending the entire 5 waves structure from 3/19 high. We don’t like buying the pair.

USDCAD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart