In this technical blog, lets take a quick look at the 1 hour Copper Elliott wave view from March 09 lows. In which the the metal was showing 5 waves bounce from March 09 (2.5593) low & the bounce was impulsive rather then corrective sequence. Thus suggesting the cycle from (2.5593) low could be following the Elliott wave Zig-zag pattern. Where the cycle from (2.5593) low ended at March 20 peak (2.6979) that we have labelled as Minute wave ((a)) of the zig-zag pattern. According to Elliott wave theory Zigzag is a 3 wave structure having internal subdivision of (5-3-5) swing sequence. The internal oscillations are labeled as A, B, C where A = 5 waves, B = 3 waves and C = 5 waves. This means that A and C can be impulsive or diagonal waves. However the A and C waves must meet all the conditions of wave structure 5, such as: having an RSI divergence between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions, ideal retracements etc. The cycle from (2.5593) low to (2.6979) was in 5 waves sequence, then the 3 wave dip in Minute wave ((b)) was expected to hold above (2.5593) low for next leg higher in Minute ((c)) leg higher into the direction of previous wave ((a)) or for 3 swings bounce at least.
Copper 1 hour chart
Below is the 1 hour March 27 NY updated chart showing the pullback happening in the metal within Minute wave ((b)), as Elliott wave double three structure from (2.6979) peak, where first leg lower ended in Minutte wave (w) at (2.5863) & Minutte wave (x) at (2.6544), then based on the correlations with US dollar & other commodities i.e OIL, Natural GAS & Metals, Copper was expected to stay above (2.5593) invalidation level.
Copper 1 hour March 27 NY updated chart
Since then Metal pulled back as expected, the pull back went quite deep but it was still holding above the Invalidation level (2.558) and as far as price stays above there, we were expecting Minute wave (( b )) to complete and metal to turn higher, as shown below
Copper 1 hour March 28 Asia updated chart
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