As a Cuban and as a waver we try to related both and created a social economic wave forecast of the Cuba Cycle. First, we need to understand it is not like in the real market because of the nature of time , Time is a lineal preposition when correction will not appear as it appear in the regular market , it will appear in a series of events which will contract the momentum of the Cuba cycle , and the consequently the Fibonacci extension will be trace from the years within the correction .Second , we need to understand the nature of the waves when we know that the first wave is nothing more of a fight between the bears and bulls when both are fighting for the trend , we need to understand that wave 2 is when side in power is under attack but the side that will ended losing the trend . Wave three is when the winner gain momentum and run the market out , just to get a second fight from the losing side , which will created wave Four .Finally, the winner in the first time will win again ,just that in this time there is not momentum and we get close to the end of a cycle . Well after understanding the nature of the a Elliott wave cycle, we can get back to the Terrible Cuban regime.
Getting back to history , the Cuban Cycle really start the cycle in 1952 ,Former President Batista seizes the power and become a Dictator creating a new group of opposition and placing an end to the Cuba democracy ,From that moment we will identify the two sides as the Cuban Regime ( which leader is Fidel Castro ) as the bulls and the opposition as the bears . Bears are trying to create a democracy in Cuba. 1953 is the first show by the Regime leaders; in July 26 of 1953 they launch an attack to the Moncada barracks which was the time the second biggest military institution in the country , the Bulls got defeated and went send to Jail , that created momentum within the Revolution because they got recognition within the national and international press , 1955 Castro is released from prison and they left the country and go to Mexico, later in 1956 Castro together with another 80 rebels land in Cuba again to fight now the Government of Batista , that’s created another correction within this proposed wave 1 of the Cuban Regime , this wave 1 ended at with the victory of The Regime in 1959, it took 7 years for wave 1 when the the correction where the defeated Moncada and the exile to Mexico. Taking Elliott wave principle is clear the fight between the Regime and the Batista Government, a clear fight between the Bulls and bears.
Now we are entering, the powerful wave 3 , the one that will lead to a Global crisis , Deaths , a one powerful side , broken promises ,more than 2 million Cubans leaving the country , time when Cuban can get to jail for carrying a single USD bill or for listen to the Beatles. The powerful wave 3 started in 1959, so if we take the fibo extension of the the wave 1 which was 7 years, will take us to this years into the future.
Wave 1 Fibo extension Year into the future
7 YEARS 1.618 1970
7 YEARS 2.618 1979
7YEARS 3.236 1980
7 YEARS 4.236 1989
7YEARS 6.85 2007
Now, we know we are into a wave 3 , and we will try to subdivided the wave 3 with events that happen during the years of 1959 to 1989 when we believe wave 3 ended. So , we will start with the years of 1959 to 1961 , during this years the fight continuous and we believe this is wave 1 of 3 , which is April 16,1961 begun the real wave3 of 3 , that day, the future of the regime got stronger ,the Regime defeat an invasion of exiled from Miami together with the Cia , and Castro proclaimed the socialism nature of the regime and get into association with the all USSR , this even will created a series of reaction around the world making a lot of enemies and also allies , let’s be real at that moment we got a bipolar world either the USSR or the USA, so the Regime chose the USSR because many Cubans were already living in the USA, that created the Missile crisis and with the agreement between the US, and the USSR to never invaded Cuba, the wave 3 of 3 took off and ran like powerful machine . I was born in Cuba and during that time we believe in the evil theory of the USA , we were presented at school , we believe we were the right side and the enemy was evil. We believe in promises and believe in a future we were presented. The events were happening so fast with small correction like in 1970 when the regime suffer a defeat when they cannot delivered the 10 million tons of sugar they promised the Cuban people ,any defeated were small until the period around 1977-80 , when the Mariel boatlift , this begun when 12 people crash a minibus to the gate of the Peruvian Embassy , the Peruvian Government open the gates and over 7000 people got in creating a crisis and 120000 Cuban leaving to Miami. All this even are taking places around the 2.618% extension of the wave 1 , this was at the moment the biggest crisis within wave 3 and the Regime was too strong the trend was pretty strong they have the art to pass any crisis they were master in how to manipulated people. Then , come the real , test , 1989 is the 4.236 extension of wave 1 and something have to happen , for sure, For 30years , the USSR , was providing Cuba with favorable trade agreement even when it is hard to prove they are report that place the number around 1 billion every year , and then something happen, When Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev visited Cuba in 1989, the close relationship between Moscow and Havana was strained by Gorbachev’s implementation of economic and political reforms in the USSR. “We are witnessing sad things in other socialist countries, very sad things,” lamented Castro in November 1989, in reference to the reforms that were sweeping such communist allies as the Soviet Union, East Germany, Hungary, and Poland. The subsequent dissolution of USSR in 1991 had an immediate and devastating effect on Cuba. The Soviet Union and Cuba signed a trade protocol in 1991 introducing changes to the trading relationship and a shift to world market prices for all traded commodities. The Council of Mutual Economic Assistance, which had once accounted for almost 85 percent of Cuban trade, was dissolved 1991. Trade with the Soviet Union declined by more than 90 percent and trade with eastern European countries decreased almost completely. The Soviet Union alone imported 80% of all Cuban sugar and 40% of all Cuban citrus. Oil imports dropped from 13 million tons in 1989 to about 3 million tons in 1993 from Russia. The dissolution of the Soviet Union also halted construction of Cuba first nuclear plant, the construction of which was aimed at alleviating Cuba’s dependency upon foreign oil. All this take the Regime to declared a Special Period, when the admitted a crisis to come, Guys, we are in wave 4, the people went public and criticized the regime, they are people saying things in public against the regime. The Regime as we mention before was artist to control the people and allowed citizen to do thing which were taken to prison before because the need it, like carrying the enemy currency, allowing the Cuban from the outside visiting the country, we were called enemy before by the way, and leaving the country that last one took around 45000 more Cuban out to Miami. Amazingly wave 4 ended around 1995 and begun wave 5 when there is a weak Regime, still the trend is in favor of the regime but the momentum is gone, there is not more USSR , Typical of wave 5 the trend keep going but the momentum is lacking , the biggest impulse within this wave 5 came when Hugo Chavez provided help but fail , so we believe taking the extension from 1952 to the end of wave 4 at 1995 ,that is 43 years , time 0618 that give us 26 years which measuring from 1995 will provided a possible end around 2016-20 , according to Elliott wave principle together with how the mass will react to sometimes the manipulation of the Regimes.
Back