The Nasdaq Tracker QQQ Long Term Cycles & Elliott Wave
Firstly the QQQ instrument inception date was in March 1999. That was before it ended a larger cycle up from the all time lows in March 2000. The ETF instrument mirrors the price movement of the Nasdaq which did that. As shown below from the March 2000 highs the instrument experienced a steep correction lower in three swings to the October 2002 lows. From there to the October 2007 highs it ended the first of the current series of impulses in the blue color. This makes up the subdivisions of the wave ((III)) that is in progress.
As can be seen, the pullback from the October 2007 highs was in 3 swings that ended in November 2008. This corrected the cycle up from the October 2002 lows. From there it appears the wave I was the extended oddity of the impulse subdivision of wave (III). Considering the wave three’s are the usual extended Elliott wave this is a bit odd although not unheard of. The wave II low created in August 2015 was strong enough to suggest it was correcting the cycle the November 2008 lows. Equally the same thought applies to the move up from there into the August 2018 wave (III) high.
It appeared the wave IV was only deep enough to be correcting the cycle from the August 2015 low. From there it saw another high in August 2018. The wave (IV) into the December 2018 lows was strong. It suggested it had corrected the cycle from the November 2008 low. The analysis and commentary continues below the QQQ Monthly chart.
Secondly as previously suggested the QQQ instrument mirrors the Nasdaq highs & lows. In addition the cycle up from the October 2002 lows remains in progress. Assuming the before hand data, the instrument has an all time high in March 2000. From there it has an Elliott wave incomplete sequence higher. The analysis and conclusion continues below the QQQ Weekly chart.
In conclusion the move up from the December 2018 wave (IV) lows appears to be incomplete. The target area figures on the weekly chart blue box represents the equal legs of the wave I & II of the cycle up from the December 2018 lows which is 228.17 As shown the 247.14 number represents the Fibonacci extension 61.8% of the cycle up from the October 2002 lows. Afterward the instrument can see a pullback lower of the same magnitude as like in the March 2000 to October 2002 lows in wave ((IV)) before turning higher again.
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