After spiking to 130.50 on March 7 at the height of the Russia-Ukraine war, Oil (CL) has started to pullback and consolidate. Oil shows an incomplete bearish sequence from the peak on March 7, 2022 favoring further downside. Short Term Elliott Wave View in Oil (CL_F) suggests the cycle from March 7, 2022 is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from March 7 high, wave (W) ended at 93.53 and rally in wave (X) ended at 116.64. Wave (Y) is currently in progress as a double three in lesser degree. Down from wave (Y), wave W ended at 93.93. The 1 hour chart below shows the rally to 111.31 ended wave X.
Down from wave X, wave (i) ended at 106.45 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 111.18. Oil then extends lower in wave (iii) towards 100.44, and rally in wave (iv) ended at 104.16. Expect wave (v) of ((a)) to end soon, then Oil should rally in wave ((b)) to correct the decline from May 5, 2022 high before it resumes lower. Potential target lower is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from March 24, 2022 peak at 82.3 – 87.8 area.
