In this blog, we revisit Turkish Lira Elliott wave analysis presented back in August 2018 and present the latest USDTRY Elliott Wave Analysis. We were looking for a bounce to fail below August 2018 peak for another leg lower to complete a larger 3 waves correction down from August 2018 peak before buyers entered the market again.
Let’s take a look at USDTRY Daily chart below to see how price action unfolded since August 2018
USDTRY Elliott Wave Analysis – Daily Time Frame
We can see the bounce failed below August 2018 peak as expected and price turned lower again. It reached blue box which was 100 – 123.6 extension area of black ((A)) – ((B)) where buyers appeared as expected and produced a bounce. The bounce appears to be in 5 swings as we will show in the 4 Hour chart below.
USDTRY Elliott Wave Analysis – 480 Minute Time Frame
Preferred view suggests that cycle from 11/29/2018 low (5.129) ended at 5/9/2019 (6.199). This move can be counted in 11 swings and hence appears to be a diagonal structure. We have labelled this as wave (( 1)) and now expected a wave (( 2 )) pull back in 3, 7 or 11 swings. Pair is already showing 3 waves down from the peak and as far as it stay above 5.67306 level, expect a 3 waves bounce in wave (X) to correct the decline from 5/9/2019 peak before another 3 swings lower are seen to complete wave (( 2)) pull back as a double three Elliott Wave structure. A break below 5.67306 would suggest decline from 5/9/2019 peak could take the form of an impulse in the first leg when pair would still need a 4,5 to complete the 1st leg as an impulse i.e. wave (A) before we get a bounce in wave (B) and lower again to complete wave (( 2 )) pull back as Zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. We don’t like selling and consider the buying after 7 swings lower in wave (( 2)) to be a safer strategy.
In the end, we will revisit the Weekly chart and present an alternate path in the weekly time frame.