The cycle from the April 2025 low in the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) remains active. It is unfolding as a five‑wave impulse. Wave ((4)) of this sequence concluded at 228.18, as shown on the 45‑minute chart. From that level, the ETF advanced into wave ((5)). A decisive break above the prior wave ((3)) peak at 252.77, recorded on 15 October, is still required. Without that break, the risk of a double correction remains. Yet the rally from wave ((4)) has displayed impulsive traits, which favor continued upside momentum.
From wave ((4)), the initial advance in wave 1 terminated at 237.11. A modest retracement in wave 2 ended at 235.18. The ETF then nested higher into wave 3. Within this third wave, wave ((i)) completed at 240.44. The pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 239.24. The instrument extended upward in wave ((iii)) to 245.97. A brief decline in wave ((iv)) ended at 244.77. The final leg, wave ((v)), reached 248.82, completing wave 3 of higher degree.
A corrective wave 4 followed, pulling back to 247. The ETF then rallied again in wave (5) to 248.99, which finalized wave (1). At present, a pullback in wave (2) is unfolding. This correction addresses the cycle from the 21 November low before the next upward phase resumes. In the near term, as long as the pivot at 228.18 remains intact, the expectation is for the pullback to locate support within a 3, 7, or 11 swing sequence. That support should set the stage for renewed strength.
