SPX shows a 5 swing sequence from July 27, 2023 high favoring further downside. 5 swing is an incomplete bearish sequence and the Index therefore likely extends lower. The drop from July 27 high unfolded as a double correction Elliott Wave structure. Down from July 27 high, wave ((a)) ended at 4461.33 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 4523.34 The Index extended lower again in wave ((c)) towards 4344.75 to complete wave W of the double correction. Wave X connector took the form of a zigzag. Up from wave W, wave ((a)) ended at 4443.18 and wave ((b)) correction ended at 4346.29. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 4532.26 which completed wave X.
The Index turned lower and broke below wave W, confirming the fifth swing lower is in progress. Down from wave X, wave (a) ended at 4430.83 and wave (b) ended at 4511.99 The index dropped further in wave (c) that should be near to end which completed wave ((w)). Once wave ((w)) is finished, the market should begin a wave ((x)) corrective rally in 3, 7 or 11 swing before it resumes to the downside. Near term, as far as pivot at 4532.26 high stays intact, expect further bearish movement in the index to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside. Potential short term bearish target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave W. This area comes at 4100 – 4269.
