The short-term Elliott Wave view in Dow Futures (YM) indicates that the cycle from the November 21, 2025 low has concluded as a five-wave diagonal. From that low, wave ((i)) advanced to 49,299, followed by a corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) that reached 48,092, as shown in the one-hour chart. The subsequent rally in wave ((iii)) unfolded as a clear five-wave impulse. Within this sequence, wave (i) terminated at 48,686, while wave (ii) retraced to 48,556. Momentum then carried wave (iii) higher to 49,463, before a modest pullback in wave (iv) ended at 49,096. The final push in wave (v) reached 49,899, completing wave ((iii)). Afterward, the index corrected in wave ((iv)) toward 49,001, and the final leg in wave ((v)) advanced to 49,899, thereby completing wave 1 of a higher degree cycle.
Currently, the index is retracing in wave 2, correcting the advance from November 21. The internal structure of wave 2 is unfolding as a zigzag formation. From the peak of wave 1, wave (i) declined to 49,057, while wave (ii) rallied to 49,799. The downward move in wave (iii) reached 48,689, and wave (iv) rebounded to 49,095. The market is now expected to complete wave (v) of ((a)) shortly. Once this occurs, a corrective rally in wave ((b)) should follow, addressing the cycle from the January 13, 2026 high. This rally is anticipated to unfold in three, seven, or eleven swings, consistent with Elliott Wave guidelines. Afterward, the index is projected to resume its downward trajectory, continuing the broader corrective phase.
