Best reading of the cycles suggests pair has ended a cycle from 10.15 (134.12) low and is due a larger 3 wave pull back in 4 hour time frame. Let’s take a look at Elliott wave structure of the decline from 149.77 peak. Initial decline from 149.77 – 146.40 was a triple three or ((w))-((x))-((y))-((z)) structure that we have labelled as red wave W. After this we saw a 7 swing bounce to 50 – 61.8 fib zone of W and pair has turned lower again. Area between 146.32 – 145.83 is expected to complete wave ((w)) of Y before we get a bounce in wave (( x )) and lower again toward 145.04 – 144.25 area which is equal legs – 1.236 ext of W-X.
Pivot at 148.40 high should keep on holding during proposed wave (( x )) bounce for this primary view to remain valid. If pivot at 148.40 high gives up during proposed wave (( x )) bounce, then pair could end up doing a FLAT in wave X before it turned lower again. We don’t like buying the pair in proposed push lower and as far as 148.40 pivot holds, we like 1 more push lower to complete 7 swing sequence from 149.77 peak.
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